Crikey Says

Feb 10, 2012

All roads lead to Queensland

Brace yourselves as Queensland becomes the centre of the political universe ...

The looming Queensland election just got interesting. Well, actually, it's been quite fascinating for a while but it just got even more interesting. Take a look at this graph. Polling company ReachTEL conducted a survey of 616 residents of the all-important electorate of Ashgrove on February 9:

The primary vote of Campbell Newman -- you remember, the unofficial leader of the LNP who hasn't actually been elected yet -- fell below 50% for the first time in the poll series. Labor's Kate Jones picked up 3.4 percentage points since early January, and both candidates are now neck and neck.

The campaign proper kicks off on February 19 and Crikey has many treats in store. In the meantime, the flood inquiry rolls on as accusations of mismanagement of Wivenhoe Dam continue to be thrown around, Premier Anna Bligh has started appearing at fundraisers (despite her 2009 pledge to refrain from participating in "pay-per-view politics"), the opposition leader has gone to ground after his in-laws and their business dealings dominated headlines last week, and Bob Katter's Australia Party is flinging mud early by accusing the Newman camp of funding last year's controversial Rip & Roll safe s-x campaign.

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8 thoughts on “All roads lead to Queensland

  1. Gavin Moodie

    616 doesn’t seem to be a lot to poll for an electorate with 30,000 voters, but if the sample is representative it makes Ashgrove very interesting indeed. Maybe Newman’s indifferent past is not bearing close scrutiny by the voters.

  2. zut alors

    If I was Premier Bligh I’d be tempted to pack a suitcase and head off overseas until the day before the election because no amount of campaigning by her will save Queensland’s Labor government. Just this week the salaries of health workers and police were not paid on time – yet again.

    Premier Bligh will put monumental effort into the campaign but it won’t make one iota of difference to the inevitable result. On the other hand it would be gratifying to see the popular Kate Jones retain Ashgrove and, with Rudd in tandem, she may come through.

  3. Gavin Moodie

    I thought Premier Bligh might attract some support for steering Queensland thru another flood crisis, altho the disarray over the Wivenhoe Dam isn’t looking good. But surely she can’t desert her post in this time of great need?

  4. David Allen

    zut alors,

    I wouldn’t be too sure. Like the feds the choice is for the lesser evil. But, and wait for the scare campaign made more likely by the closing Ashgrove gap, who would be Premier if the LNP get up and Newman goes down? A terrifying prospect! Will we risk it?

    And it was the Commonwealth Bank that stuffed the pays up. Whilst Courier Mail readers might be in the dark (what’s new) over this, affected public servants will be well aware of who’s at fault. I imagine they’ll also be contemplating the slash and burn policies generally favoured by coalition governments.

  5. zut alors

    @ David Allen,

    Frankly, it’s an ugly prospect whoever wins (with or without Newman). I realise the Commonwealth Bank was at fault nevertheless one popular commercial TV bulletin did not mention it. But the Commonwealth bank cannot be blamed for the $16 million Health fraud.

    We’re doomed in any event.

  6. AR

    The Evil of too (many) Lessers.

  7. Tom McLoughlin

    And what about the morbidly obese one?

    And when will Hedley Thomas at the Murdoch broadsheet acknowledge that the intensity of weather in the floods was climate change related? Or will he be splitting hairs over W2 and W3 jargon in “the manual” for his master’s voice all the way to the vote?

    Someone should just say Qld was in drought for the 10 previous years and they didn’t want to discharge water if at all possible, and the changed water catchment with new developments, drainage, vegetation loss etc meant no one knew how a big release would behave at unknown choke points, because effectively the catchment with all it’s unique factors in 2010 had never had a big release. The big flood in the 1970ies is surely irrelevant given population change and developments.

  8. David Allen

    Yes Tom. I’m concerned that professionals will decline to operate infrastructure if witch hunts such as we see at present are allowed to proceed.

    The main quality required seems to be success at soothsaying.

    As usual The Australian, and Murdoch, does the community ill service.

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