The real Gillard negative Tony Abbott is avoiding. This being the time of year it is, I’ve had more contact with a wider range of friends and associates than normal. And as we exchange season’s greetings I have been surprised by the extent of the anger about Julia Gillard’s pay rise. The thought of the Australian Prime Minister earning more than the United States president clearly is not going down well with the public and it is Gillard who is suffering for it.
This is one of those rare occasions where Tony Abbott is not saying “no” but it doesn’t seem to matter. It is the leader of the government people hold responsible not the leader of the opposition.
The beneficiary when some aspects of the politicians’ pay rises come before the parliament next year clearly will be the Greens who are the only party not determined to get their heads into the trough — or should I say the only party prepared to pretend they don’t believe politicians should get their heads into the trough.
It’s a 50:50 chance. The survival of Julia Gillard as Labor leader until the next election is rated by the Crikey Leadership Indicator at 50% as the year comes towards its end.

And Labor actually winning the next election whoever is the leader?

The one game politicians play well. If there is one thing politicians are good at it is the blame game. The debate over how to handle boat people is as unedifying an example as I have ever seen. All the posturing this week has nothing to do with solving the problem and everything about trying to blame the other lot for it.
No partridges but black throated robins. The pear tree in the back yard is bare but a team of Chinese and Swedish researchers have this year rediscovered the breeding area for the poorly known Blackthroat Luscinia obscura, in the Qinling mountains, Shaanxi province, north central China.

Seven singing males were observed in Foping and seven more in Changqing National Nature Reserves — which almost equals the total number of individuals observed of this species since its discovery in the late 19th century. The Swedish Research Council, hailing what it called a “sensational bird finding in China“, describes the blackthroat as resembling a European Robin Erithacus rubecula in size and general appearance, but with a jet black throat and breast in the male. The female is considered to have a pale brownish throat and breast, although no females definitely attributable to this species have been observed.
The song is distinctive, and consists of rather short, quick, varied strophes that include both whistles and harsh notes. The strophes are delivered at a fairly slow, even pace. Several individuals were sound recorded in 2011.
So listen here, then, for the sound of the black throated robin
And while you listen feel the stresses of pre-Christmas living disappear. Or at least you should if Eleanor Ratcliffe, a psychologist from Surrey University in Guildford, has got it right. She is heading a research project to find out whether birdsong has any impact on people’s mental well-being.
Initially it involves volunteers from the National Trust and the Surrey Wildlife Trust filling in questionnaires to find out their preferences and how they self-rate the impact of hearing birds.
Last year, the BBC reports, the National Trust launched a scheme encouraging people to listen to birdsong for five minutes each day, as a way of combatting the “winter blues”.
“Birdsong gets us closer to nature, and links people to places and memories in a way that few other sounds can,” said Peter Brash, an ecologist with the Trust.
“It’s a simple pleasure that most of us can enjoy, even if we live in towns and cities.”
The new study will find out whether this mood enhancement is a reality for people who are not already bird or nature enthusiasts.
Here, there and everywhere. There’s nothing dull about the race for the US Republican presidential nomination. The lead is perpetually changing. Look at the ups and down in what the pollsters have been predicting will happen in the first contest of the new year:

Some pundits are even predicting an Iowa revival in the blue line of candidate Rick Perry as this advertisement gets its airplay:
Who knows. But while the national opinion polls have shown similar variations, the Crikey Republican Candidate Election Indicator has been consistently showing Mitt Romney as the most likely overall winner.



21 thoughts on “Gillard’s chance of survival? 50:50”
Schnappi
December 28, 2011 at 3:48 pmThink The PM will go to the next election,although all the media have predicted a rudd challenge for over 6 weeks,and all through unidentified sources.Seems the media always protects sources,fine ,but suggest get more reliable sources or be called abject liars.
fredex
December 29, 2011 at 7:42 pmWell I would suggest that Gillard’s chances of still being PM in a year or so are substantially better than Abbott’s chances of still being official Leader of the [parliamentary] Opposition and better by a fair bit than Crikey having intelligent non-partisan headlines.
Suzanne Blake
December 29, 2011 at 7:49 pmGillard cannot and will not get over the li es she has told. That is all people remember and they feel chea ted.
I am away with the family at the moment, and it regularily comes up in conversations with people you meet for the first time, from all walks of life.
She is history, but when will Caucus move? Do they have a winning replacement?
Will it matter for Labor?
geomac
December 29, 2011 at 11:34 pmSB
Thanks for making me smile even if unintended by your post . What part of disneyland to you frequent ? Fantasy land for pro lib nut wings where everybody agrees with other right wing nut jobs lol . Strange that when I,m out and about the last thing people tend to mention is politics . The weather or enquiries about health maybe . Relating about how well the kids went at school or where they went for holidays . Still the people I meet are normal and not not imaginary . The old saying is not to talk about politics and religion and it still holds true . Blogs and posts don,t count because thats not everyday normal interaction with people.
Suzanne Blake
December 30, 2011 at 9:01 am@ Geomac
Yes correct, but when you start to talk about business, business conditions etc, you always head back to Gillard and Co.
I guess you are not in business, you stay away from those areas. Maybe I am lucky and just happen to meet just people trying to eek out a living, rather that sitting on welfare or easy street.
ggm
December 30, 2011 at 10:14 amThey myth that ‘government made my business fail’ is so compelling, isn’t it.
it couldn’t be observer bias? no, thats a left wing conspiracy.
it couldn’t be that I am selling things people don’t want? no, thats a left wing conspiracy.
it couldn’t be that the cost of fuel, energy, (which btw, are not actually set by the government, but by the wonderfully mis-named ‘free’ market) is to blame? nope. Its the government.
The size of government DEBT should be a rough indication of its influence on the economy. Guess what: its tiny.
I’ve never forgotten the box of Lyndon LaRouche conspiracy-theory racist filth on the counter in a bush town shop: it summed up the victim mentality of the shopkeeper to a tee.
Blame anyone but yourselves. Thats the Australian way.
-G
geomac
December 30, 2011 at 1:28 pmI guess you are not in business, you stay away from those areas. Maybe I am lucky and just happen to meet just people trying to eek out a living, rather that sitting on welfare or easy street.
Some friends and family came up to Morwell to have a xmas lunch and drinks with me at the local RSL . One was a semi retired painting contractor another an owner of a sign business. My sister still does care work such as shopping etc for the elderly and she is 68. My other sister works at head office for Bunnings and the rest do whatever they do but seems to be office or sales. The only time politics came into the conversation was when someone expressed surprise at how poorly the Baillieu government has performed breaking so many election promises . I noticed a new thing for me and that is the use of smart phones to share pics . I use my phone to make calls but Facebook etc means the phone is also a social appliance for sharing events .
Talking of welfare I assume you mean the elderly bussed in to have a day out in Canberra and not the various business subsidies given to businesses . I doubt that luck has anything to do with you only meeting like minded people as its more likely a fabrication . The use of the word eke to describe an income say a lot . What does eke mean for people these days ? Paying the price of a cup of coffee to help out the Qld floods is too much ? Having to do with one overseas holiday instead of two ? Unless you have had the ars e out of your strides at some point I suggest you refrain from using ” eke ” when you mean doing ok but not living high .
As an aside Abbott has for many years advocated higher wages for MPs yet he can forget a $700,000 loan for two years . He can,t keep a job for more than ten minutes as demonstrated by his numerous attempts at real work but never getting past the initial training session . Maybe Petra should assign him a position he can actually stick to for longer than a photo op .
Suzanne Blake
December 30, 2011 at 1:42 pm@ Geomac
Maybe we should pay more for Federal Politicians, cause we have a group of poor performers on both sides now.
On Abbott. I have said here 101 times now he is not a leader, but a $700k LOAN (where he pays interest) is not like a $700k INVESTMENT where he is getting dividends etc.
The neighbouring Labor MP in the 3rd most marginal seat in Australia, has 5 houses and just bought a new one on the water. So much for global warming and sea level fears. Also send her two kids to Private Schools in Sydney (one of them the one Latham was mentioning in the 2004 federal campaign). Nice person, but nothing inspiring.
Suzanne Blake
December 30, 2011 at 3:31 pm@ GGM
My business is doing fine, but that not because of the government, its because its does well in bad times and good times, there is no distinction.
I am refererring to other business, small manufacturing, medium manufacturing etc. There are owners looking at moving all their production offshore to FTA countries, cause it will be much cheaper and NO CARBON TAX. They get tax incentives from foreign governments as well. Its a no brainer really. They pay less tax offshore as well.
LY ING GILLARD AND INCOMPETENT SWAN HAS SOLD US A PUP WITH THE CARBON TAX. Wait until it really bites. Bob Brown will reture with his boyfriend to his wilderness retreat and we will be picking up the pieces, trying to work out how we survive as a nation with just mining and services. It will be food production, so that means the greenies will be up in arms again as we pump water inland and setup the odd reactor to power the massive pumps and de-sal plants.
Suzanne Blake
January 4, 2012 at 7:29 pmGillard chance of survival in 2012 is 10%. I know I said she would be axed in 2011 and she should have been for an incompetence, ly ing an policy failures.
Where are the lefties now supporting the NBN with a pathetic 4,000 subscribers and a revised forecast bill of $56 billion, surely it will be considerably more if it does roll out.