I am as vulnerable as most of my profession to finding bad news makes a better story than good news but I thought it appropriate to break the habits of a life time and record that the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) Food Price Index has dropped for the first time after eight months of continuous price spikes. Not by much, mind you, and the FAO cautions that it would be premature to conclude that this is a reversal of the upward trend.

But there it is. A definite decline.

Says David Hallam, Director of FAO’s Trade and Market Division:

“We need to see the information on new plantings over the next few weeks to get an idea of future production levels. But low stock levels, the implications for oil prices of events in the Middle East and North Africa and the effects of the destruction in Japan all make for continuing uncertainty and price volatility over the coming months.”

There. Typing that gloomy forecast makes me feel better!