Lost in the excitement of the NSW election result has been a breathtaking Galaxy poll published in Brisbane’s Sunday Mail newspaper, showing the Liberal National Party set to sweep to victory under the sort-of-leadership of Campbell Newman. Respondents were first asked who they would vote for if an election was held today, which produced a result of 36 per cent for Labor, 47 per cent for the LNP and 10 per cent for the Greens. These are very similar results from the Galaxy poll a month ago which found that while Anna Bligh had recorded a stunning recovery on personal approval, Labor remained in the doldrums on voting intention. However, they are notably different from the recent Newspoll conducted under not altogether different circumstances, such that there is a lingering note of confusion as to where things currently stand.

I don’t think Galaxy have relieved this much with the wording of their supplementary question: “If Campbell Newman became the leader of the Liberal National Party in state parliament and challenged Anna Bligh at the next election, which one of the following would you vote for?” This of course is not literally in prospect. Nonetheless, the poll makes some sort of point by finding the LNP vote spiking further under the conditions as described, with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred and primary votes of 50 per cent for the LNP, 34 per cent for Labor and 9 per cent for the Greens.

Importantly, 59 per cent of respondents rate the Campbell Newman switch a “good idea” against only 31 per cent who think it a bad idea. Newman leads Bligh as preferred premier 51-38, which compares with a 58-33 lead for Bligh over John-Paul Langbroek a month ago. On the question of preferred LNP leader, 60 per cent favour Campbell Newman against 13 per cent fro Lawrence Springborg, 7 per cent for Langbroek and just 3 per cent for the formal incumbent, Jeff Seeney.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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