New South Wales

Mar 25, 2011

NSW election: Labor may field a team, but no 12th man

There remains an assumption that things can't possibly be as bad for Labor as some of the polls have predicted, and that a latent sympathy vote awaits to be absorbed by them. I suspect this is a misreading of the public mood.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

Two late polls from the NSW state election have maintained the satisfying continuity that has been evident throughout the campaign. In the six statewide polls published during March (two apiece by Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy), the Coalition’s two-party lead has varied from 63-37 at the bottom end to 66-34 at the top — a range perfectly accounted for by the standard 3% margin of error.

36 comments

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36 thoughts on “NSW election: Labor may field a team, but no 12th man

  1. Had Enough

    Should be the shortest count to winner in history

  2. Tony

    Will, what sort of a slap-dash psephologist fails to consult Bob Ellis & his magic tea leaves of positivity?

  3. Socratease

    The outcome ought to be known well within the first hour, but will Krispy Kreme concede early, or remain in the bunker until after midnight?

  4. dgh1

    The exact make up in terms of how many seat the ALP retains, independents and Greens gain may not be known on the night – particularly in three way contests where the order in which candidates finish is critical – results will not be known in some seats till all the postal votes are in and counted and they won’t be the seat where we normally expect the attention to fall

  5. michael l

    It took the Canadian conservatives 3 terms to become the largest opposition party again and 4 terms to form a minority government after their wipeout in 1993.

    I think that electoral situation is closest to this one in the English speaking world that I can think of, although the Greens have been nowhere near as effective at taking Labor votes as Reform were taking PC votes. The total inability of the Greens this election at defending progressive politics has been near total.

    As much as Labor need to lose this time, I’m not looking forward to the total conservative domination of the social agenda in NSW for the next eight to twelve years. The CDP and the Shooters will get a bigger say in our future than the entire left D:

  6. michael l

    the total inability is near total. HMMMM

  7. dgh1

    Given some of the comments on this thread on the perceived failure of the Greens as a matter of curiosity I would be interested to know how people think the Greens could have projected themselves more forcefully into the public debate in the NSW election (I am not a member of the party)- given that;

    – One of the major media organisations has openly declared that it is out to destroy them

    – the media as a whole does not give them the attention proportionate to the proportion of the population
    – to the extent that they are discussed in the mainstream media they are framed within a discourse of “extremism” or a one issue party despite have a substantial policy agenda

  8. Had Enough

    @ DGH1

    The Greens have moves so far left and extrems, that even Gillard and Ferguson are calling them extreme. I think peopel also see Christine Milne and her views as super extreme and Sarah HY is even more extreme.

    Then you have Marrickville and the anti Jewish policy from the Greens.

    Add it all together and you have super extreme.

    I think people are now seeing the risk.

    I would not be surpised to see another party emerge between Labor and Lib.NP, that is green but sensible. Then we should see a split Green and Labor vote.

  9. freecountry

    So much for the lower house (although as I said elsewhere, I’ll believe it when I see it) but what about the upper house? I’ve been hoping someone would give a bit of coverage to the Legislative Council side of the election, but the media seem hardly aware that it exists.

    I will be very glad to see the Coalition form government this time around, but I will not be giving them top billing for our state house of legislative review. I don’t think anything is gained by turning this vital institution into a remote control device for the headquarters of any major party, either Labor, Liberal, National, or Green.

    I invite readers to check out the policies of Raymond Robert Stanton Brown of the Building Australia Party (( buildingaustralia.org.au/policies.aspx )). I have no connection to Raymond or his party, but he will be getting my first vote for Legislative Council tomorrow. In my opinion the number one problem in NSW today is the land and housing markets, and I believe Raymond Brown has the knowledge and the right approach to fix it–if he can get anyone to listen to him.

    If you don’t like the Building Australia Party, I invite you to spend some time checking out some of the variety of independents and minor parties, either progressive or conservative according to your taste. All the best to everyone tomorrow.

  10. Dan Gulberry

    Anyone having a pool on what time the result will be called.

    I’m down for 6.10pm.

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