Time for a polling trends update.
First, the broad sweep. Plugging all the latest polling data fit to print into our system, this is how the two party-preferred Pollytrend has changed.
We see a relatively sharp downturn for the government starting in late February, bottoming out about the second week of March, before recovering even more sharply over the past few weeks to end up within half a point of where they were before this rollercoaster began. Beware noisy commentators declaring that Event X was responsible — this upturn has been in the making for two weeks now.
In fact, here’s an image I posted a while back on Twitter, which traced the polling up until mid-March — you can see what looks to be the turning point happening at the time. We’ll run it next to the current chart to highlight the change:
BTW — you can follow me on Twitter here if you’re silly enough. I publish a fair bit of politics stuff through Twitter that isn’t large enough to turn into articles.
No one particular poll was responsible for the trends, as all the pollsters we use (Newspoll, Nielsen, Essential Report, Morgan Phone Poll and Galaxy when they publish) have generally moved together over the past six weeks or so.