NSW Labor’s position has deteriorated in recent weeks and going into the last week of the election campaign, faces an even bigger defeat than previously considered, according to Essential Research.

A poll based on over 900 respondents compiled over the last three weeks has Labor on a primary vote of just 24%, with the Coalition a full 30 points in front on 54%. The Greens are on 12% and independents and “other” on a high 11%, providing a 2PP outcome of 65-35%.

At the start of the election campaign, Essential found the Coalition led 61-39% (initially reported as 59-41%, but after discussions with Antony Green, Essential adopted his approached based on NSW’s optional preferential voting system). Labor has in effect lost 1 percentage point a week since then on a 2PP basis, putting paid to the idea that Premier Kristina Keneally has run a good campaign for someone in a no-win situation.

Based on Green’s election calculator, 65-35% would leave Labor with just 14 seats, the Coalition on 70, and independents on 7 seats. The Greens would also pick up Balmain and Marrickville. A continuation of the Labor decline in the next week would see another seat lost, but this is now well into bedrock territory and it would be hard for the Coalition to push Labor into single figures.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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