A plume of radioactive particles extending into the stratosphere from the Fukushima Daiichi reactor complex makes a mockery of claims that Japan’s nuclear crisis isn’t comparable to the Chernobyl disaster in 1986.
The stream of nuclear contaminants are being driven by an intense heat source consistent with exposed fuel rods burning in air, the process that inevitably leads to meltdown unless massive and prompt intervention is successful.
These radioactive clouds are now mixing with higher altitude air currents and being dispersed more widely across northern Asia and the north Pacific.
They are being tracked by the international Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in London, which is authorised by the International Atomic Energy Agency to alert airlines and airports to accidental releases of nuclear contamination.
The VAAC this morning issued 10 nuclear emergency flight information regional advisories (FIRs) to enable airlines to route flights well clear of the hazard along air corridors across northern Asia, southern China including Hong Kong, all of Japan and Korea and the high latitude or sub-polar routes that are used to connect North America to dozens of Asia-Pacific cities.
Qantas either has or will soon re-route its Narita flights to achieve a minimum time turnaround at the main Tokyo airport and return via Hong Kong, where there will be a crew change.
This change will avoid overnight stops by crews in Japan for occupational health and logistical reasons, but the airline is closely monitoring the changing situation and all travellers (and on all airlines) are advised to check for late changes to the northern Asia flights.
There is a line of six nuclear reactors at the Fukushima plant, four of which have now experienced one or more large explosions with the remaining two that had been taken off line before the earthquake and tsunami of last Friday now heating up to levels so dangerous Tokyo Electric is considering breaking down the reactor block walls to allow a build-up of hydrogen gas to escape.
Exasperation with the quality of information coming out of the Japanese nuclear authority, the government and the Tokyo Electric company led to harsh words from the French nuclear authority this morning.
It said the Daiichi accident could be classed as a level 6 event on the scale of one to 7. The Chernobyl calamity in 1986 began as a level 6 event and was then elevated to level 7, which until now consist of the only level 6 and level 7 events recorded.
An official was quoted as saying “Tokyo has all but lost control over the situation”.
This morning the Japan nuclear authority insisted that level 4, an event with purely local effects, was the appropriate level, which is clearly not what the normally ultra-tactful International Atomic Energy Agency thought when it directed the VAAC to issue the warnings to airlines, and also to the airports at which any aircraft exposed to radiation must be thoroughly decontaminated under international conventions.
The major European and China flag carriers have variously cancelled services to Japan or re-routed flights to ensure that flight crew do not overnight in Tokyo, similar to the action that Qantas is about to take.
The quality of information from the Japanese has descended into farce, with simultaneous claims that radiation levels are harmful in the Chernobyl-sized exclusion zone but did not constitute a threat to health. This follows the patently dishonest misuse of radiation exposure metrics used for the first 3½ days of the crisis, which understated the real levels by 1000 or three orders of magnitude.
The US think tank, the Institute for Science and International Security, said the situation at Daiichi had worsened considerably and was now closer to a level 6 event and “may unfortunately reach a level 7”.

231 thoughts on “Japan’s nuclear farce”
John Reeves
March 16, 2011 at 10:51 pmThe view from Tokyo:
— Don’t worry, we’ll just drop buckets of water on it from helicopters…
Don’t laugh, this was the only good news for about 12 hours – the only new news, in fact, except for “there is a column of smoke coming from … one of the reactors, we’re not sure which one”. And of course the radiation levels above the plant were too high, so they had to give up on the helicopter plan, not that it was ever a serious plan anyway, they just had to say /something/.
They then wheeled out the emperor to give a condolence speech to the victims, which distracted everyone for a while and gave the media something else to talk about.
There are been some very well written, very technical explanations about why everything was going to be OK, which was very reassuring until I realized that some of the key assumptions that they made simply did not match the unfolding reality. Mainly 1) that it would be possible to successfully pump seawater into the core, and 2) that the containment vessel would not be compromised.. and I’m sorry Christopher Dunne, but that’s what they think has happened. (Source: Japanese TV and the Japanese language version of the Nikkei newspaper, although that article has since been taken down, presumably to avoid panic) Neither of these assumptions are true.
I was very calm until about midday yesterday, when Edano (the calm, clear official who had been giving reassuring press briefings every few hours) broke into a cold sweat in the middle of his press conference. Yesterday was freezing cold here, and /nobody/ is using electricity for luxuries like heating. He had no answers then, and there have been no answers since.
The latest news is that they are “making preparations to pump water to cool the reactors from the ground”. That was two hours ago — five and a half days since the crisis started.
Sean
March 16, 2011 at 10:54 pmRoquefort, what about thorium LFTR technology?
The Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor: What Fusion Wanted To Be
plus the ABC notes above on the technology, and simply google the phrase for more info.
CHRISTOPHER DUNNE
March 16, 2011 at 10:56 pmAnybody got the numbers on hand: how many nuclear reactors have been built since 1986?
If Chernobyl did not “drive a stake through” the nuclear industry’s heart, it may just be a little premature to claim that the problems at Fukushima Daiichi will.
By the way, does anyone know why the plant Fukushima Daini (ie the second), just 11 kilometres away, is not in the news?
Well, the 4 reactors there, like all the others except at their sister site, have not been damaged by this colossal earthquake.
Now, where’s that stake…
freecountry
March 16, 2011 at 10:56 pmThank you Christopher. Why couldn’t a journalist say that? It would be nice if Australia could stand for a bit of calm and moral support at this distance, while the situation is still developing and rescue crews are still looking for survivors. It would be nice if we could read a few words about those survivors and rescue crews in between all the nuclear commentary.
Roquefort Muckraker
March 16, 2011 at 11:04 pmNo good film out of Chernobyl. It was only one reactor. After Chernobyl the nuclear industry assured the world they had learned their lesson. So, here we are on the coast of Japan, the land that gave us the world tsunami, and they didn’t plan for severe inundation from the sea. Nice planning, I guess you’ll do better next time.
Chernobyl didn’t kill off nuclear because the stake missed the heart (if the nuclear industry really has one). This time that row of reactors, steaming, belching out clouds of radioactivity, is killing off the industry. Sure, Japan has a lot of reactors. Now, go and build new reactors to replace those that have just died. Who in Japan will say yes?
CHRISTOPHER DUNNE
March 16, 2011 at 11:05 pmJohn Reeves, there may be breaches of the containment, but what there most certainly will not be is a massive explosion of nuclear material like there was in Chernobyl. The difference is not trivial, and it should be made clear that there will not be a need to evacuate Tokyo. Apocalyptic statements about what’s happening at Fukushima are just that.
It is, as you say, a really serious event, but let’s keep it in perspective.And, every day that passes, the energy in the reactors is diminishing rapidly, and whatever the outcome, will never be anywhere even approximating what happened at Chernobyl.
Flower
March 16, 2011 at 11:11 pmChernobyl fallout covered the entire Northern Hemisphere and the impacts continue to this day.
Lest we forget.
Stevo the Working Twistie
March 16, 2011 at 11:12 pm@john reeves – thanks for bringing us some perspective. I’m sure your fears must be somewhat allayed by the chorus of experts AKA Crikey commentators. I cannot presume to offer advice, being as I’m many miles from trouble, but if it was my ass on the line, I’d be getting the flock out of there ASAP.
Now if you could just stop bleating into your soy-frappachino and embrace the hard facts 😉
Mark Duffett
March 16, 2011 at 11:13 pmLooks like I wasn’t the only one with doubts about this story: http://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/airline-business/2011/03/japanese-crisis-that-nuclear-w.html
This still leaves some serious questions unanswered, though. Are we to infer that an aviation advisory of strangely obscure provenance is the only evidence for “a plume of radioactive particles extending into the stratosphere” “stream of nuclear contaminants” “radioactive clouds” (let alone “driven by an intense heat source consistent with exposed fuel rods burning in air”)?
If not, what other evidence is there?
CHRISTOPHER DUNNE
March 16, 2011 at 11:16 pmNo problem Freecountry, it’s been a very tumultuous time for Japan, the world’s media, and of course us here in Australia of late. What’s concerned me most has been the poor quality of reporting, and the the incredibly polarised opinions about nuclear power, the poor understanding of radiation hazards and the somewhat bizarre disjunction of the ‘green left’ who on the one hand deplore the non-scientific posture of the AGW denialists but who revert to gross exaggerations and ill-informed statements about anything to do with nuclear power.
It’s been fascinating to watch, but a little disheartening when I really do understand the crisis we face with our addiction to fossil fuels.