GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Galaxy poll for New South Wales has the Coalition on 50 per cent of the primary vote, down a point on the previous poll, with Labor up three to 23 per cent and the Greens steady on 14 per cent. This translates into 64-36 on two-party preferred, which compares with 62-38 from Newspoll, 61-39 from Essential Research (as adjusted by Antony Green) and 66-34 from Nielsen and the previous Galaxy. Contrary to expectations that Labor’s numbers might represent their irreducible bedrock of support, no less than 41 per cent of Labor voters say there is a chance they will change their vote before election day, compared with only 24 per cent of Coalition supporters.

The poll is of interest in being the first test of public opinion on the carbon tax, respondents having been asked if “Kristina Keneally is correct to take the long term view on the carbon tax issue or does it show that she is out of touch with the needs of the people of New South Wales”. The result had 37 per cent opting for “correct” and 55 per cent “out of touch”. If you were of a mind, I suppose you could spin this as saying supporting the carbon tax is about the most popular thing the government is doing right now: further questions find the Coalition rated better to handle every policy area (roads, water, public transport, health, education, law and order, helping families and the sale of electricity assets) by margins of between 14 per cent and 38 per cent.

Also: 47 per cent say they will just vote one, while 51 per cent say they will allocate preferences; Barry O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed from 32-54 to 34-50; and there are another three questions you can find out about the link, the basic thrust of which is that the government is unpopular.

It seems the current parliament officially expired overnight – this is good timing, because this site’s previously slow work rate on the New South Wales is about to pick up.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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