Here's one interpretation of the Victorian election result: Victorians have, probably quite sensibly, decided to learn from the lesson of NSW and Queensland and not give an old Labor Government another go round.
There's little evidence that governments in their second decade ever improve, even if they change leader. That's certainly the case in NSW. It's a harsher call in Queensland, where Anna Bligh and Andrew Fraser still have some reform mojo about them. And occasionally old governments, particularly those up against it in the polls, reach for good policy (Kristina Keneally, for example, now has the honour of having the best political funding legislation in the country).