This week’s Congressional election results have had no impact on which party the markets think will provide the winning President in 2012. Despite the good showing by the Republicans, the Democratic Party remains with a probability of victory assessed at around 60% on the Crikey Presidential Election Indicator.

4-11-2010 crikeyuspresidentialindicator

The Crikey election indicators are not the same as opinion polls. They show what the market assesses will happen on election day not what a pollster has found would happen if an election was held when the poll was taken.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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