Today’s Essential Report is steady as she goes on party support, with Labor edging up a point at the expense of the Coalition, leaving them 51-49 on a 2PP basis, and the Greens steady on 11%.
However, voters have a dim view of minority government, with 42% of voters expecting it will lead to poorer administration of Australia, compared to 30% who think it will be better and 15% not expecting any difference. About 20% of voters expect minority government will be “a lot worse” for the country.
And the vast majority — 70% of respondents — expect they’ll need to return to the polls within 12 months. More than a quarter think it’s very likely and just over half believe Australia should have another election within that time.
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Almost 40% of voters think the Coalition would win such an election, compared to only 35% who think Labor would survive in government.
Essential, which provided the most accurate pre-election poll, also asked voters whether they’d change their vote if an election was held in the next 12 months. Virtually no voters said they would definitely change their vote, but there were differing outcomes among voters about whether they may switch to another party.
In results that mirror pre-election polling about firmness of voting intention, 84% of Coalition voters indicate they would vote the same way; 76% of Labor voters say the same, but only 62% of Greens voters say they’d vote for the same party, with 29% saying they might or would change their vote.