Nielsen comes in today via the Fairfax broadsheets with the primaries running 42 (up 3)/ 41 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 54/46 the same way – a 2 point gain to Labor since July 8-10 when the last Nielsen was taken. The Greens are down 1 to 12 while the broad Others are down 1 to 5. This comes from a sample of 1400, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark (tables here)
Looking closer at the vote estimates, taking them to a decimal point and breaking down into geography and gender, we get:
Again, the big gender splits we’ve been seeing for a while now continue on. On the preferred PM contest, Gillard leads Abbott 55/34 among all people, 58/30 among women and 52/38 among men. Moving on to the approval ratings we get:
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Nielsen also asked additional questions on which party deserves to win, the nature of the replacement of Rudd and whether it makes people more or less likely to vote for the ALP and how many people believe that Abbott will keep or break his promise of not reintroducing Workchoices during the first term of an Abbott government – all of which are particularly interesting.
First off, we’ll start with the deserve to win question. Nielsen asked:
Do you think the Coalition deserves to be elected or not?
Do you think the Labor Government deserves to be re-elected or not?
The top-line results, full demographic breakdowns and attached maximum MoEs (rounded to the nearest whole number) come in like this:
Keep those MoEs in mind for the rest of the post, because they apply to the rest of the questions we’ll have a look at. One of the interesting things about these “Deserve to win” questions is what it might say about why people are intending to vote the way they are currently telling pollsters. Clearly, the ALP has a few problems in Qld to the point where the Coalition is more likely seen as deserving to win the election compared to Labor, with WA not far behind. Yet on the other side of the equation, the Coalition and Abbott are toxic among the 18-24’s.
It’s also interesting that a clear majority of Greens voters believe that the ALP deserves to win – which surely must add to the certainty of high Greens preference flows occurring on August 21 – which Nielsen currently has respondent allocated Greens to Labor preferences flowing at 81%.
One of problems that the ALP has faced, particularly in Qld, has been the way Rudd was replaced. Nielsen asked two questions on this:
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kevin Rudd was replaced as Prime Minister?
And how has Mr Rudd’s replacement affected your vote?
What is worth noting here is that even though more people disapproved of the way Rudd was replaced than approved among all demographics, when it came to the question of a person being more or less likely to vote for the ALP as a result of that replacement, current ALP voters were alone, among all demographics, of being more likely to vote for the ALP on balance.
As we know, since Gillard became PM the ALP vote has improved – so this is suggesting that the current ALP voting stock (a voting stock level that puts Labor in a large winning position) is treating Gillard as a net plus – meaning that the effect of Rudd dragging down the likelihood of people voting for Labor is coming from people who aren’t currently voting for Labor anyway.
The only real drama here for Labor is up here in Qld, where Rudd being replaced by Gillard is still dragging the potential Labor vote down a few points – Qld having the lowest “no difference” score among all states and the largest negative net effect, twice that of any other state. Because those numbers in Qld are so large, it’s more likely that they contain people who “could” vote Labor rather than, say, people who wouldn’t vote for Labor in a pink fit – which is what most of the rest of the States look like considering the results among ALP voters.
Nielsen asked a follow-up question to this:
If Labor wins the election, would you support or oppose Kevin Rudd returning to the front bench as Minister for Foreign Affairs?
The results came in at 68% support, 22% oppose. There wasn’t much difference on the cross-tabs, with all states being a few points around 70% support except for WA which only had 53% support. Among Labor voters and Greens voters support was 82%, Coalition voters had it has 52%.
Next up, Nielsen asked about Abbott and Workchoices:
Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says the Coalition will not reintroduce ‘Work Choices’ in its first term in office. Do you think Mr Abbott is more likely to…
The big gaps come out with the young, females, South Australians and among minor party voters. Interesting also is the non-capitals being more sceptical than the capitals – even though Abbott has larger political support in the former, going slightly against the grain.
In other news, Morgan has published a phone poll taken over the 20/21 July and a new face to face poll from last weekend, the details of which are:
All three polls today simply reinforce our trend line that we picked up in the polls last week. The Pollytrend in the sidebar has been updated, along with the projections. Out Phone Poll Trend point estimate is currently sitting on 53.2%
Finally, the usual Nielsen charts come in like this: