Since our last roundup, we’ve had another Galaxy, a Newspoll and an Essential Report come into the field. The Galaxy was taken on June 25, 1 day after their first poll and showing identical results for the major parties, and a 1 point gain to the Greens at the expense of a 1 point drop to the Others. The Newspoll was taken over the weekend while Essential has mostly post-Rudd respondents.
If we compare what the the pre-spill results with the post-spill results by pollster, this is what we get:
So we’ve seen the ALP primary up at the expense of the Greens and Others, the two party preferred up for Labor by a smaller amount (as compositional issues of the primary vote changes play out underneath) and the Coalition pretty much standing still on their primary vote (with less than a point average drop).
Also worth having a squiz at is how the pollsters have been behaving over June:
Just click to expand that chart. The ALP two party preferred is at the top, the primary result is on the bottom and all colour coordinated for your convenience. Just note that the bottom axis isn’t time period consistent.
Finally, and as an addendum to yesterday’s post. I’ve re-run the election simulations with three separate assumptions about preferences. Firstly, by two party preferred preferences allocated on the basis of the 2007 election, secondly by the 50/50 mix I used as our actual simulation of the April to June aggregates yesterday and which the charts came from (as well as the sidebar figure for the quarterly projections), and thirdly, using Nielsen based respondent allocated preference flows which we also went through yesterday.
Then I dragged up the two party preferred of the simulation to come in at 52/48 as the headline, using 2007 preference allocations as per the final Newspoll of the Rudd era – then ran the simulations again under the three scenarios. This gives us an estimate of the electoral reality across the April to June period and a comparison to the likely electoral reality of Rudd’s final Newspoll (acknowledging that all polls were trending up over the last few weeks, so Newspoll’s final 52 was exactly were it was expected to be)
Under all three preference scenarios, Rudd’s final week of polls had him in an election winning lead, despite the huffing and puffing of lightweights to the contrary.
That would make Rudd the first PM dumped by his party in Australia with that status as far as I can tell. I had a quick squiz to see if any other leader of a western democracy of late has been in that position and I can’t find one. If anyone can, let us know!