This fortnight’s Newspoll comes in via The Oz with the primaries running 41 (down 2) / 35 (down 2) to the Coalition. However, due to a rather large polling Greenade, that all washes out into a two party preferred of 51/49 to Labor – a one point increase to the ALP since last Newspoll.

The broad Others are steady on 8 while the Greens have jumped 4 points in a fortnight to come in on 16. To show how unusual this is, it’s worth taking a squiz at what the Greens primary vote looks like across all Newspolls since the beginning of 2008:

greensprimsmay30

It’s the first time the Greens have achieved above 13, let alone 16 in Newspoll. If we look at the Greens vote from all pollsters over the last 2 months, we don’t see any consistency in this 16% mark either:

greensvote2

This is the second time in a few months that Newspoll is getting odd figures in their minor party votes (remembering the large 12% Others a few polls ago) and it’s making their major party votes a bit smelly – like an ALP primary of 35, which is simply too low.

Maybe it’s just volatility in the electorate, maybe it’s just bad luck – but no other pollster seems to be suffering from it like Newspoll is at the moment.

On the satisfaction rating front – Abbott and Rudd continue their slide into public disapproval, with Rudd’s net satisfaction moving down 6 from minus 12 to minus 18, while Abbott loses 9 going from minus 3 to minus 12:

netsatsmay30

A question though – when an opposition leader tries to drag a PM down into the mud with them like Abbott has been doing, is it ultimately a good or bad strategy? On the up side it takes shine off the PM and gives them all sorts of grief in the process, but on the downside, does it completely destroy all chances of an opposition leader to win an election? Would the public ever choose an opposition leader over an incumbent when both are largely unpopular?

Meanwhile, the usual charts come in like this.

pmsatsmay30 opsatsmay30

bpmay30] nptppmay30

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
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