The latest face-to-face Roy Morgan poll shows a further deterioration in Labor’s vote, with its primary vote falling 3.5% to 37.5%, well behind the Coalition on 43%.
However, the drain on Labor’s vote is not going to the Opposition but to minor parties, with the Greens vote up 3% to 12%. It means the 2PP outcome moved 1% down for Labor to 50.5-49.5%.
However, the poll, conducted last weekend after the Federal Budget, also showed Labor may no longer be able to rely on Green preferences, with Green voters now splitting 60:40 to Labor and the Coalition, well down on the 80:20 split in 2007.
The poll is the fifth week in a row that Labor’s vote has fallen, despite a rise in both consumer confidence and the number of voters who believe Australia is “headed in the right direction”.
Both Morgan and other polls have found Australians believe is headed in the right direction economically, but are failing to give the Government any credit for it. That suggests Kevin Rudd’s communications problems are become acute as we head into an election that will strongly feature competing claims of economic competence.