This week on Betting Market Friday, the polling stampede for Abbott pushed Labor out by 4 or 5 cents across all agencies, while the Coalition tightened by between 15 and 30 cents. In implied probability terms, the punters have suggested that Abbott’s chances of becoming PM improved by between 1.8 and 2.7% across the agencies. The full weekly change data comes in like this:
…while the implied probability data comes in like this:
This is the first week the implied probability of a Labor victory has had a 6 in front of it. If we go to our tracker, the last two weeks of bad polls has seen the markets react accordingly.
Finally, when can track the prices the five agencies offer for a Coalition victory, we find effectively two groups of prices with Sportsbet, Centrebet and Sportingbet all clustered together, while IASbet and Betfair do the same, but with a slightly higher price.