Yesterday via The Oz, Newspoll released their quarterly aggregation, giving us demographic breakdowns of the vote estimates and other metrics.

First up, the primary vote swing – the change in the primary vote estimates since the last election – is currently negative for most demographics for the major parties, with the Greens appearing to pick up most of the difference.

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Please note that some of my estimates for the 2007 election result are different from what Newspoll is using – I had the luxury of being able to use more than one pollster to get those election estimates for the non-geography categories.

On the two party preferred swing, these major party reductions and Greens vote growth flow through to give the ALP a swing towards them in every state except NSW.


The final thing worth looking at is the net satisfaction rating comparison between Rudd and Abbott:


Abbott did well with the oldies last quarter, but got progressively worse the younger the cohort became. Over in the sidebar, I’ve updated the full demographic breakdowns using more data than just Newspoll. Also later this morning, we’ll run the election simulation – the headline results of which you can already see on the right.