Newspoll comes in this fortnight via The Oz with the primaries running 43 (up 4)/ 38 (down 3) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a 4 point gain to the ALP. The Greens are on 12 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are on 7 (down 2). This comes from a sample of 1141, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9%. Suffice to say that this is Labor’s best Newspoll all year.

As we thought on Friday, the medium term trend had started turning to Labor around a month or so ago, so this just reinforces what we already sort of knew anyway -although Essential Report and Newspoll can rarely seem to move in the same direction in the same week these days.

Every Newspoll this year has had Rudd’s satisfaction rating on around the 50% mark – this fortnight being 3 up on the satisfied side and two down on the dissatisfaction. It seems to be Rudd’s trough in public approval at the moment that the Opposition and the media cycle couldn’t really push him below.

More interesting however, has been Abbott’s satisfaction dynamics which have taken a bit of a hit in Newspoll, although not as big a hit as we saw them take yeterday in Essential. Worth taking a squiz at is the comparison between Abbott and Turnbull with their satisfaction dynamics. If we compare the satisfaction dynamics of Abbott and Turnbull in terms of the Newspoll ratings they scored at X days into their leadership, this is what they look like

Note: the Day 1 result is the final result of the leader each of Abbott and Turnbull replaced – essentially the results they to expand

abbottturn1 abbottturn2


While Abbott and Turnbull were around the same level with their satisfaction rating at the same time, Abbott is a much more polarising figure, having larger dissatisfaction ratings across the period. But what struck me was how they seemed to have the same shaped honeymoon over the same approximate period of time.

Meanwhile, the usual charty bits come in like this:

pmnetsatmar30 opsatmar30

netsatsmar30 bpmmar30


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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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