South Australia

Mar 9, 2010

Rann’s approval takes a caning as Libs firm in SA election market

As the South Australian election campaign enters its final fortnight, a complacent betting market continues to rate the Liberals a $3.60 long shot -- but that should change following today's Newspoll.

William Bowe — Editor of The Poll Bludger

William Bowe

Editor of The Poll Bludger

As the South Australian election campaign enters its final fortnight, a complacent betting market continues to rate the Liberals a $3.60 long shot. That should change following today’s Newspoll: it shows a dead heat on two-party preferred, with the Liberals leading on the primary vote 39% (up 4% on the previous October-December poll) to 36% (down 1%).

Equally alarmingly for Labor, Mike Rann’s disapproval rating (up 10% to 48%) has surged past his approval (down 5% to 45%). This is remarkably similar to what happened to Alan Carpenter in 2008, when his net rating went from 9% positive at the start of the campaign to 6% negative at the end.

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10 thoughts on “Rann’s approval takes a caning as Libs firm in SA election market

  1. Diogenes

    The Libs plan for the RAH might be on the cheap but it’s $700M not $700K.

  2. chinda63

    Beat me to it, Diog.

    I still think Tony Piccolo will hold Light. He’s worked very hard over the past 4 years and, as Mayor of Gawler before entering parliament, was well-liked and already had a high profile.

    Trish Draper running in Newland is the one thing that will save the seat for Labor. I also think the choice of Joe Scalzi in Hartley will prove to be a mistake.

    These three seats are must-wins for the Libs. If they can’t win these, they can’t win government.

    Oh, and I still think Brock will hold on in Frome and that Karlene will hold Chaffey.

  3. Toorak Toff

    The Tiser poll last week had the Libs trailing in Newland. If this holds up, it’s hard to see how they can win the election.

  4. Independently Thinking

    I can still not believe how every pseph is ignoring the high Independent vote and that will no doubt help sitting Indies. Such is a gimme, and with Brock and Hanna having worked their electorates hard in the meantime since elected, the ‘sick of Rann’ vote is parking there before even going to the Libs. Xenophon helping Hanna is also helping in Mitchell. Maywald is another issue – she is teetering but my personal belief is she is a goner – there is a lot of anger in the Riverland and her membership of the Ministry has divided the community.
    I can’t see any other Indies doing that well – people in Mt Gambier are pretty wary of Indies after the disappointment of Roaring Rory and Steve Perryman has a positive profile for a major party candidate.
    I believe the ALP will retain Newland (Liberals shot themselves in the foot with that candidate) and Bright – ALP polling there shows Fox is safe-ish. The ALP will lose Norwood, Hartley, Light, Morialta and Mawson.
    In the Upper House, the Libs will get 4, ALP 3, Greens just 1 and Family First will need prefs but will get over the line easily with them. This leaves 2 to go and I think it will be tight between the 4th ALP who will get there though, just, and then it will be a lottery between Winderlich, Democrats and a few Independents or microparties with intricate preference deals. The Greens have no hope of a second – they are kidding themselves. My gut feel is the Democrats may cause a big upset by getting up for the last seat but my smokey is the Climate Sceptics.

  5. Lysistrata

    There is a factor in the east that has slipped past comment so far. The city is in gridlock now and will be for several days until after the Clipsal race on Sunday. This means that for the next seven days any commuter from the eastern suburbs is going to be sitting in traffic – even those travelling on O’Bahn buses. Isobel Redmond in her advertisements specifically mentions the traffic conditions. It has been bad out in the West for months. In the east though the road closures add a lot of time to commuting and make people quite grumpy. No wonder the incumbent Labor politicians are looking at defeat.

    Mr Rann suggesting that the Festival could be every year has not helped the disposition of those in the East who are really over having so many events held in March. Why have we got the Fringe, the Festival, Womad, Adelaide Cup and Clipsal all at the same time? It might have looked good in the lead up to an election to make everyone happy but not everyone is ecstatic.

  6. Alexander Berkman

    Again it’s a case pf tweedledumb tweedledumber – what choice do we have, 2 parties both representing the high end of town – both want to waste huge money on the southern expressway, increase funding to the mining industry, throw $450m at the adelaide oval while at the same time, we are running dry on water, our public transport system is utter shite and we’re busy turnign the state into one big armaments factory. bring on the greens & winderlich I say -get rid of this damn stupid preferential voting system and get some true democracy in this state!

  7. Jeremy Williams

    Perhaps this is may be a lesson to Rann and others that telling a lie about something no one cared about anyway is not rewarding.

  8. SBH

    What lie was that Jeremy Williams. Saying “I didn’t do it” is a denial not a lie.

  9. abarker

    @Lysistrata – I get the oBahn every day and what pisses me off worse than the traffic is the fact the extension has apparently been canned. That would have provided an exclusive bus lane which is something Adelaide sorely needs.

    Sure the Clipsal is inconvenient (I had to walk from South Tce to Hindmarsh Square last night – and I beat the bus – AND I was carrying a 14kg delivery) but they simply do not provide any alternatives. I see cars fill the bus lanes on North Tce and Botanic Road every night, nobody fines them, nobody does anything about it.

    If Public transport were actually decent and given priority, and could handle the capacity, it would help with this problem in a big way.

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