Today’s Nielsen via the Fairfax press has the Coalition up 1 on the primaries and Labor steady to come in at 42/42, washing out into a two party preferred of 53/47 to Labor – a one point gain to the Coalition since last month. The Greens are on 9 (down 1) while the broad “Others” are on 5 (down 2). This comes from a sample of 1400, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark. You can see the full demographic tables here.

We’re going to do something a bit different today and look at approval ratings, preferred PM and win expectations by party vote. To start with, approval ratings for both Rudd and Abbott.



Next up, preferred PM ratings by party vote:


Nielsen also ask a question occasionally on win expectations – as in, which party do you think will win the next election. To put it into historical context, this is what the results were at the final Nielsen poll before each of the last four elections.


This is what the win expectations look like currently – broken down by party vote.


Later today, We’ll also take a big squiz at the other half of the Nielsen poll in a separate post that deals with questions on Rudd’s new health proposal and which party is considered best to manage an array of issues. The usual charts come in like this:

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