Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 40 (steady)/ 41 (up 3) to the Coalition, washing out into a two party preferred of 52/48 to Labor. The Greens are on 12 (steady) while the broad “Others” are 7 (down 3). This comes from a sample of 1146, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

This is the equal lowest Newspoll primary and two party preferred vote for Labor since they’ve been in government, as we can see by taking a squiz at the Newspoll primary and TPP charts since January 2008.

newspollprimarylong newspolltpplong

It’s pretty clear that Abbott is on a honeymoon, at least according to Newspoll – but adding strength to the argument that it’s a real vote shift at the moment rather than a whimsical dipping of the toe into Coalition waters, it’s worth looking at our two party preferred vs. net satisfaction rating chart for Rudd:


As Rudd’s satisfaction ratings dropped from October last year, so too did the Labor vote – what we would expect. So this shift isn’t just about Tony, but equally about both leaders – about Rudd’s relatively poor performance of late as well as Abbott being the new guy.

Abbott should have enjoyed a bit of a free kick over Christmas when Labor effectively took a holiday from politics, yet this week everyone is back, so Abbott’s real contest with the public starts pretty much today with his launch of the new Coalition climate change policy. Whatever happens though, he’s off to a pretty good start with the public.

The rest of the usual charts come in like this:

pmsatjan31 opsatjan31

netsatsjan31 ppmjan31