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Environment

Jan 12, 2010

Weather extremes equal the sun of their parts … or do they?

A frozen northern world and new heat records in the southern hemisphere are suddenly making the impact of a deep solar minimum on the world’s weather a politically correct topic.

A frozen northern world and new heat records in the southern hemisphere are suddenly making the impact of a deep solar minimum on the world’s weather a politically correct topic.

Yet a year ago I was attacked in Crikey by global warming experts for daring to suggest, in Crikey, that something odd was happening on the sun.

It should emphasised, science has not yet linked the big freeze to the “quietest sun” since 1913 but the historical coincidences between supposedly insignificant deep solar minimums and cold weather are under review and references to them as being factors in very cold winters are appearing in places where they were previously dismissed out of hand.

The big freeze across Europe and parts of North America has energised the climate-change deniers just as the fierce dry heatwaves of this summer have encouraged global warming warriors to attack opponents of the government’s ETS, even though it was useless and dishonest in addressing what is a crisis in fossil carbon pollution of the atmosphere.

The issue for serious climate science now includes possible linkages between the appearance of an Arctic oscillation that no one predicted but that drove frigid air across Europe  and much of middle and eastern North America,  and the solar lull that has just ended.

As explained in this Clarifier, the sun blind-sided the situation by extending its normal 11-year cycle of activity to 13 years, reaching its nadir in old cycle sunspot activity in the second half of last year instead of mid-2007 as expected.

Not since the even deeper solar minimums of 1901 and 1913 had the sun been so quiet. And between or near  them, which was the first time since the Dalton Minimum of 1890-1830 that two or more such notable minimums occurred in sequence, the weather in Australia, Europe and North America produced some very harsh winters and very balmy summers.

These events included the Niagara Falls freezing solid upstream,  downstream and in situ, and several exceptional snow outbreaks in the eastern states of Australia and South Australia.

But there was no glacial response. The temperate glaciers of New Zealand and Europe continued to gradually down waste. The summers offset the severity of the winters. And the inexorable rise of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, which can be traced to the pre-industrial embrace of forest clearing, charcoal making and cement production, continued without variability, rising from 296 ppm in the Law Dome ice cores in 1901 to more than 300 ppm in 1913.

This solar minimum, which was recently ended by strongly rising numbers of new cycle sunspots, coincides with about 390 ppm of CO2 attributed to the inability of the natural carbon dioxide exchange cycles to cope with the outpourings from fossil fuel consumption, as well as synthetic halons never before seen in the atmosphere.

By April last year the GISS was acknowledging  that something was going on with the sun, but also that it was of no comfort to climate-change deniers either.

It was time, according to GISS director James Hansen, to seriously study a solar phenomenon (or lack of it), that closely tracked the prolonged cool periods of the Little Ice Age, using tools in space and on earth never available to the astronomers of the Elizabethan Age or the latter Serenissima.

Will the deep solar minimum of 2009 be followed by another, like that of 1913 after 1901, or will the solar cycle now on the upswing revert to normal, and reverse or erase whatever respite the last minimum was contributing to an overheated world.

That is a very alarming question for science and humanity to consider, and as solar physicists failed to predict the behaviour of the sun in the last cycle, no one is offering any answers with confidence just yet.

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29 comments

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29 thoughts on “Weather extremes equal the sun of their parts … or do they?

  1. Most Peculiar Mama

    What is most hilarious is the Warmenists repeated refusal to acknowledge the glowing orb in the sky as having any impact on global climate AT ALL.

    Instead, their sacraments are GIGO computer models and “peer-reviewed” ‘scientific’ theories that shape shift like the changing (rising?[LOL]) tides depending on the time of the month.

    You can’t get a much more stupider religious rapture than that.

    Even the druids were smart enough to know the role the Sun played in their lives and fortunes.

    And their earthly legacy has majestically stood the test of time.

  2. Virro

    Mad mama please stop naval gazing and limit your rants to the long term scientific outlook – admittedly flawed but still better than your Dirty Digger-like diatribes.

    Druids disappeared over 2,000 years ago and did not leave a written history. We rely on roman accounts of their beliefs. Let us hope that something similar will apply to you and yours in the centuries to come.

  3. Evan Beaver

    Really Mama? What I find most hilarious is when you make ‘factual statements’ that can easily be refuted by using the internet.

    IPCC “repeated refusal to acknowledge the glowing orb in the sky as having any impact on global climate AT ALL”. Oh? really?

    http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-2-4.html

    Now, please, for my entertainment, go over to the Hamilton article and defend Monckton.

  4. Most Peculiar Mama

    Try harder Evan:

    “No Sun link to Climate Change: IPCC”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6290228.stm

  5. heavylambs

    To echo Evan,MPM,why do you make such easily refuted proclamations? The IPCC reports repeatedly and profusely acknowledge only that the climate system is a PRODUCT of the interplay of many factors. How could it be any other way? Your earthly legacy of stupid is far more resilient than the druidic legacy of whatever.

  6. Most Peculiar Mama

    Try harder Evan:

    “No Sun link to Climate Change: IPCC”

    news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/6290228.stm

  7. Most Peculiar Mama

    @ heavylambs

    You’ve had your arse handed to you so many times on this topic yet you keep coming back.

    If not for the general hilarity your ‘posts’ provide on an otherwise dull day I wouldn’t even bother replying.

    But I can’t help myself.

  8. Evan Beaver

    Are you joking? I provide you a link to the actual IPCC website that discusses the link between solar activity and radiative forcing, which completely refutes your statement that “repeated refusal to acknowledge the glowing orb in the sky as having any impact on global climate AT ALL”, and then try again, by showing me a paper that shows that the IPCC have studied the effects of sun? What on earth are you smoking?

  9. Pete WN

    Oh dear – MPM, is the Christmas wine still making its way through the system? Or did no-one turn up to your New Years Eve poetry recital? Either way, the earthly legacy of my amusement will majestically stand the length of this article; thanks for the laugh.

  10. Ben Sandilands

    Er, in between volleys, I need to correct a typo. The Dalton Minimum was 1790-1830.

    OK, please continue. This is more fun than anything else on immediate offer.