In other news, sun rises in east, old man drives Volvo etc etc.
Newspoll via The Oz today brings us a particularly dismal poll for NSW Labor, even by their usual lowly standards. The primaries are running 44 (up 2) / 26 (down 4) to the Coalition. Do not adjust your screen, that says twenty six. The Greens are on 17 (up 5) – their highest ever Newspoll result in NSW that if repeated at an election would likely grab them up to half a dozen inner metro seats. The broad “Others” are sitting on 13 (down 3).
The two party preferred comes in at 59/41 to the Coalition. This came from a sample of 1263, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.8% mark.
What is worth mentioning here is that 626 of this sample was taken after Kenneally took the leadership. The satisfaction ratings below don’t include Kenneally, they are from the 637 sample taken when Rees was leader, making this poll his last for that particular metric.
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However, Better Premier is about Kenneally. Got that? It gets confusing – you’d think the Labor party could at least time their leadership changes to be compatible with the Newspoll cycle. Priorities people!
Remember of course that 59/41 doesn’t quite do justice to the level of devastation this would cause in Labor seats because of optional preferential voting in NSW. We hear 59/41 with plenty of polls at the Federal level and yawn. But what if a Federal poll came in at around 65/35?
A 65/35 at the Fed level is ballpark similar to the sort of devastation that 59/41 would cause at the state level in NSW because of optional preferential voting.
Finally, Newspoll asked the question:
Will Kenneally be a better Premier than Rees?
Better=24, Worse=16, Same =45, Uncommitted =15
Meanwhile, the usual charts come in like this.