The first polling reaction to Tony Abbott’s ascension to the Liberal leadership has arrived, with a McNair Gallup online poll showing a massive lead to Labor and Kevin Rudd on the 2PP and preferred Prime Minister numbers — 57-43% to the ALP and 68-32% Rudd over Abbott.

The poll sample was more than 1000 people on Tuesday and Wednesday conducted online using a polling panel quota screened to ensure only eligible voters were included and weighted for state, gender and age distribution.

The poll found Abbott made voters more likely to vote Labor, with 31% of those polled more inclined versus 21% less inclined.  Contrary to Abbott’s perceived unpopularity with women, the effect was more pronounced among men than women, but particularly strong among younger voters.  The ALP held a huge lead — 49-25% on primaries among young voters, while the Greens were strongest among women and young voters.

But the poll also reflected widespread uncertainty about the government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, with 27% in favour, 30% against and 43% unsure.  Nearly half of voters didn’t think there should be an early election, with only young voters and Greens more supportive of going to the polls based on a CPRS double dissolution trigger.

Peter Fray

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