Newspoll via The Oz today comes in with the primaries running 43 (up 2)/ 37 (down 4) to the ALP, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a 4 point gain to Labor since last fortnights Newspoll. This comes from a sample of 1162 for an MoE of around the 2.9% mark. The Greens are on 11 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are sitting on 9 (up 1).

Considering yesterday’s Essential Report, it would seem that whatever it was in the water is still there – polling volatility is the new black. A little later today we’ll take a closer look at this hypo behaviour from the pollsters over the last month or so.(UPDATE: Here it is)

This Newspoll looks a more historically consistent result with all the metrics now back in lockstep, particularly the net satisfaction/two party preferred nexus of the ALP:


On the individual satisfaction ratings, the asylum seeker issue (or whatever it is that’s been causing everyone to go berko on the vote estimates) has caused bit of grief for Rudd – but while his satisfaction is down and dissatisfaction up over the last month, a complimentary boost to Turnbull hasn’t eventuated. It becomes particularly obvious in the net satisfaction charts.

pmsatnov15 opsatnov15


If you look at the preferred PM figures, it gets even more bizarre – almost as if no vote estimate volatility should have occurred at all!


It all begs the question of whether this was merely the “End of the Rudd Honeymoon” episode 422 or something else is going on.