This week’s Essential Report comes in with the primaries running 49 (up 2)/ 37 (steady) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 58/42 the same way – no change since last week. Both the Greens and the broad “Others” are down 1 to 7 a piece. This comes from a rolling two week sample of 1903, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.2% mark. The headline two party numbers may seem a bit odd, with no change occuring this week even though the ALP primary jumped 2 points – this comes down to the likely nature of rounding errors. Last weeks result was probably between 57.5 and 57.8 while this weeks result was likely between 58.2 and 58.4 (thereabouts)- so on both cases it comes out to 58 rounded.

Additional questions this week focused entirely on economic management and perceptions. These ran from a sample of 1100 giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3% mark.

Overall, how would you rate the performance of the Rudd Government at handling the Australian economy?

economichandlingEssential tells us on the cross tabs:

Results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to rate the performance of the Rudd Government at handling the Australian economy as excellent/good (94%), while Coalition voters were more likely to rate it as not so good/poor (63%). However, 34% of Coalition voters rate the performance of the Government at handling the Australian economy positively.

How do you think the Rudd Government is addressing the global financial crisis?

Ruddgfc1

ruddgfc2

The cross-tabs say:

The results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to think the Rudd Government is addressing the crisis well (94%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think the Government is addressing it poorly (52%). However, 40% of Coalition voters think the Rudd Government is addressing the crisis well.

Do you think the Australian economy is over the worst of the slowdown resulting from the global financial crisis and is starting to improve or do you think it will still get worse before it starts to improve?

slowdown1

On the cross-tabs:

Labor voters were more likely to think that the Australian economy is over the worst of the slowdown and is starting to improve (81%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think things will get worse (28%).

Males were more likely than females to think things are starting to improve (72% v 65%).

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If the Liberal Party had been in power over the past two years, do you think they would have done a much better, somewhat better, somewhat worse or much worse job than the Rudd Labor Government has done in dealing with the economic crisis?

gfcpartycomparison

The cross tabs say:

Results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to think the Liberal Party would have done a worse job (70%), and Coalition voters were more likely to think the Liberal Party would have done a better job (80%).

56% of Green voters think the Liberal Party would have done a worse job at dealing with the economic crisis if they had been in power over the past two years, and 23% of Greens think the Liberal Party would have done a better job.

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The Liberal Opposition says that Australia’s economy would have turned around without the stimulus package which the Labor Government put in place. The Rudd Government says that without the stimulus package, Australia would have gone into a much deeper recession and thousands of more Australians would have lost their jobs. Which is closer to your view?

lnpalpviewThe cross-tabs like the others follow the party line:

Results followed party lines – Labor voters were more likely to agree with the Labor Government’s view on the economic stimulus package (89%) and Coalition voters were more likely to agree with the Liberal Opposition’s view (65%). Green voters were more likely to agree with the Labor Government’s view (69%).

People in full-time work were more likely to agree with the Liberal Opposition’s view (31%) as were those earning $1600 or more per week (31%).

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Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a .25% increase in interest rates. How much of an impact will the interest rate rise have on your personal financial situation?

rateimpact

The cross-tabs break it down thusly:

People aged 25 – 34 were more likely than those in other age groups to think the increase in interest rates will have a substantial/moderate/slight impact (63%), while those aged 55 years and over were more likely to think it will have no impact on their personal financial situation (50%).

Males were more likely than females to think the increase will have a substantial/moderate/slight impact on them personally (57% v 49%).

People earning $1600 or more per week were more likely than those in other income groups to think the interest rate increase will have some level of impact on their personal financial situation (61%).

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Some people say that the .25% rise in interest rates is a sign that the economy is beginning to improve and that it reflects a positive trend in the economy. The Liberal Opposition says the rise in interest rates is primarily due to the reckless and excessive stimulus spending of the Rudd Labor Government and has nothing to do with the economic recovery. Which is closer to your view?

rateviewOn the cross-tabs we have:

Labor voters were more likely to think that the rise in interest rates is a sign the economy is beginning to improve and reflects a positive trend in the economy (78%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think the rise in interest rates is due to a reckless and excessive stimulus spending of the Government and has nothing to do with economic recovery (52%).

People aged 45 – 54 were more likely to think the increase in interest rates reflect a positive trend in the economy (62%), while those aged 55 years and over were more likely to think it has nothing to do with economic recovery (30%).

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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