Newspoll Tuesday via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 43 (down 1) / 38 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a steady two party preferred of 55/45. The Greens come in on 11 (up 1) while the broad “Others” are on 8 (up 1). This comes from a sample of 1150, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.

Satisfaction for both leaders is marginally up, dissatisfaction for both is marginally down – and it’s all pretty much business as usual as you can see from charts at the bottom. On the long trends, Rudd is continuing with the positive incremental satisfaction rate march that’s been underway since post-Utegate June, while “Undecided” has again overtaken Malcolm Turnbull as preferred Prime Minister. The only thing really of note in the charts is the further widening of the gap between the government’s two party preferred and Rudd’s net satisfaction ratings – we expect that to close soon if history if the patterns of the past continue.

Newspoll also asked two additional questions on the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. The first was on public support of the scheme where the results were broken down into cohorts. Also added was the results from the same question last October for reference.

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cprs1

cprs2

Malcolm clearly has not only the overwhelming majority of public support to back his preferred position of negotiating the government’s bill through the parliament with amendments and avoiding a DD trigger, but Turnbull’s preferred position is also backed by a clear and strong majority of his own voters. Perhaps time to tell parts of his party to pull their heads in.

Support for the CPRS is however slowly eroding over time, with both total support dropping 5 points – but that drop isnt translating across directly into opposition to the scheme, but instead into being uncommitted about it.

Female support is stronger than male support, something we see regularly on climate change questions of any form while the age breakdowns also continue with the pattern where support is strongest among the young and gets weaker as you move up the age spectrum.

The second question asked by Newspoll was on the question of what should happen to the legislation if it were to be blocked.

cprs3

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Again, a majority of Coalition voters believe that the legislation should be modified so that it can be passed. The fringe dwellers in the Coalition party room that want the policy abandoned completely have only 11% of the public backing that view.The other interesting tidbit here is the 18% of Coalition voters that want an early (read DD) election over the issue – the Coalition is a broad church and all, but that must be the suicide cult wing.

Meanwhile, the usual charts come in like this:

pmsatsep20 opsatsep20

netsatssep20 ppmsep20

tppsatsep20

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
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