Nielsen via Fairfax comes in with the primaries running 44 (down 2) / 40 (up 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – a 1 point drop since last month. The Greens are on 8 (steady), while the broad “Others” are on 8 (up 1). This comes from a sample of 1400, giving an MoE that maxes out around the 2.6% mark.

UPDATE: Tables here.

Nielsen also asked a number of questions on the government’s handling of the stimulus.First up, the broad view:

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While there’s a large plurality of support for continuing on with the stimulus, once the political positions of the available responses are combined, (Increase + Continued as is for the ALP, Decreased + Ended for the Coalition), the split pretty much reflects the two party preferred vote.

There was another question asked over approval of the government’s handling of the GFC that Phil Coorey (can’t find it online) describes as “The poll finds 59%  of Australians approved of the governments handling of the crisis, while 20% agree with the Opposition’s position.Another 17% feel the government did not go far enough“. It’s not clear what the question actually was there, so make of it what you will.

UPDATE: We now have the wording and responses for the missing question:

govefforstgfcInteresting here is that the “About right” combined with the “not go far enough” responses produce a whopping 76% majority. Considering the responses to the first question, a sizeable proportion of the country  – about 20% – believe that while the government has handled the GFC well to this point (or pursued stimulus measures broadly preferred compared to the Coalition’s position), the stimulus measures should now start to be wound back.

The other question that was asked was over respondent’s financial position, both how it’s changed over the previous 12 months and their expectations of change over the next 12 months:


The “no change” view appears fairly stable on net, while there’s been a significant shift to a more optimistic stance for the next 12 months compared to the last.That seems to be reflected in what we’ve been seeing from Essential Report over the last few months, as well as changes in the broad consumer confidence measures.

Meanwhile, the usual charts come in like this – note Turnbull’s small improvement with the personal standings:

pmappsep12 opappsep12

netappsep12 nielppmsep12

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
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