Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 44 (steady) / 39 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 the same way – no change from last fortnight. The Greens come in on 10 (up 1), while the broad “Others” are sitting on 7 (down 2). This comes from a sample of 1141, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark.
On the satisfaction ratings, Rudd has continued with the slow positive trend in his personal satisfaction levels that he’s been experiencing since Utegate broke, while Turnbull appears to have bottomed out – having his satisfaction rating bouncing around a rough value of 30 since late June.
Before we get to the usual charts, there’s one worth taking a quick squiz at – the secret polling entrails where we run the net satisfaction ratings of Rudd against the ALP two party preferred vote:(click to expand)
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As you can see, these two metrics walk in lockstep over any arbitrary period of time. Since Utegate broke, while Rudd’s net satisfaction levels have been climbing, the two party vote hasn’t quite been able to keep up on trend. It’s likely that the gap between the two metrics here will close shortly if the pattern that we’ve witnessed for the last 18 or so continues to hold. That either means a few more 56/57’s in the future on the vote estimates, or a net satisfaction dropping back down closer to 30.
We’ll run a new Pollytrend a little later today or first thing tomorrow and see how this fortnight’s polling has impacted on the longer term voting trendlines. The usual Newspoll charts come in like this: