Essential Report comes in this week with the primaries running 51 (steady) / 34 (up 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 61/39 – the ALP up 1 since last week. The Greens are 8 (steady) while the broad “Others” are 8 (steady). This comes from a rolling two week sample of 2129, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.1% mark.
An interesting set of additional questions were asked this week on how far apart the public perceives the major parties to be, Turnbull joining the Labor Party, how effective the stimulus was to avoiding a recession, favorability ratings of the major parties on key traits and voting intention broken down by religious belief.
First up, a double question set.
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In recent years, do you think the Liberal Party and the Australian Labor Party have become much closer In their policies, somewhat closer, somewhat further apart, or much further apart than they have been in past years?
Do you think that is good or bad thing?
On the cross-tabs, Essential says:
Labor voters were slightly more likely than Coalition voters to think that the two major parties have become much/somewhat closer in their policies over recent years (55% v 51%).
Respondents aged 55 years and over were more likely than 18 – 24 year olds to think that the two major parties have become much/somewhat closer in their policies (54% v 42%).
If it was found that the Liberal Leader Malcolm Turnbull had actually seriously considered becoming a member of the Australian Labor Party, would that make you think more of him, less of him, or would it make it little difference to you?
Coalition voters were slightly more likely than Labor voters think less of Turnbull if it was found out that he was considering joining the Australian Labor Party (25% v 21%).
Respondents aged 18 – 24 were more likely to think more of Turnbull if it was found out he was considering joining the Labor Party (18%), while respondents aged 55 years and over were more likely to think that it would make little difference (72%).
The Rudd Government says that it prevented a more serious economic recession and crisis because of its stimulus package. Do you believe this is clearly true, probably true, probably not true, or clearly not true at all?
Labor voters were more likely to believe the Rudd Government (85%), while Coalition voters were more likely to not believe the statements (64%).
However, 30% of Coalition voters believe the Rudd Government’s statements regarding the stimulus package and the prevention of an economic crisis.
Respondents aged 35 – 64 were more likely to believe the statements of the Rudd Government (64%), while respondents aged 65 years and over were more likely to think the statements were not true (44%).
Next up we have another double question set with comparisons:
Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?
And which statements do you feel fit the Liberal Party?
And the comparsion:
Which of the following best describes your religion?
Essential notes: “20% of people surveyed identify as Catholic, 16% by Anglican and 15% by other protestant domination e.g. Uniting, Baptist. 36% identify with no religion.” The breakdown by religion (with sub-sample size for each cohort) looks like this: