Essential Report comes in this week with the primaries running 51 (up 3) /33 (down 3) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 60/40 – a 2 point gain to the ALP since last week. The Greens come in at 8 (steady), while the broad “Others” are sitting on 8 (down 1). This comes from a two week rolling sample of 1861, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.3% mark.
Additional questions this week focus on Turnbull’s perceived control of the Liberal Party, the Nats remaining part of the Coalition, who is responsible for the Gorgon deal, concern about job losses and whether Ricky Ponting should remain captain. These additional questions ran from a sample of 1013 for an MoE that maxes out around the 3.1% mark.
Do you think the opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull has too much, enough or not enough control over the Liberal Party?
On the cross tabs, Essential tells us:
Coalition voters were more likely to think Turnbull does not have enough control over the Liberal Party (55%) and 30% of these same voters think he has enough control.
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50% of Labor voters think Turnbull does not have enough control over the Liberal Party, 23% think he has enough and 13%
think he has too much control over the party.
People aged 55 years and over were more likely to think that Turnbull does not have enough control over the Liberal Party (62%).
With a clear majority of Coalition voters responding that they don’t believe Turnbull has enough control over the party, one would think the Liberal Party should – oh, I don’t know – maybe wake up to itself a bit?
There was an interesting bit in Crikey’s “Tips and Rumours” section yesterday (notoriously unreliable, but a good bit of fun).
The contest for preselection in Bradfield is about to get a little more interesting with international lawyer Jason Yat-sen Li to declare his candidacy. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has been working very hard to convince Yat-sen Li to run. Turnbull and Yat-sen Li have been very close ever since they first met at the Constitutional Convention in 1998. Other front-runners for Bradfield, including Julian Leeser and Tom Switzer, fear that Yat-sen Li might just have what it takes to win the preselection, especially if he has Turnbull’s backing.
Some of you may also recognise Yat-Sen Li as the previous spokesman for the anti-Hanson group Unity. If that’s true – then here’s a good place for Turnbull to start regaining control.
Do you think the Liberal and National Parties should split and operate independently or should they continue to work together in the Coalition?
The cross-tabs tell us:
Coalition voters were more likely to think the Liberal and National Parties should continue to work as a Coalition (72%), while Labor and Green voters were more likely to think that they should split and operate independently (55% Labor, 52% Green). 21% of Coalition voters think the Liberal/National Parties should split and operate independently.
How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
On the cross-tabs, we have:
Females were more likely than males to be very concerned/somewhat concerned that they or some member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so (58% v 47%).
Respondents in the 35 – 44 age range were more likely than those in other age groups to be not at all concerned regarding job loss (44%) as were full-time workers (42%) and those on a salary of $1600 per week or more (44%).
Australia recently reached an agreement to sell $50 billion of liquefied natural gas to China over the next 20 years. Do you approve or disapprove of this agreement?
Labor and Coalition voters were more likely to approve of the Australia/China gas agreement (72% Labor, 62% Coalition). 44% of Green voters approve of the Australia/China gas deal and 36% of these same voters disapprove.
Who do you think should take the most credit for this agreement – the current Rudd Labor Government, the previous Howard Coalition Government or the current Western Australian Liberal Government?
Essential says about the cross-tabs:
People’s opinion followed party lines – 59% of Labor voters think the Rudd Labor Government should take most of the credit for the agreement, 42% of Coalition voters credit the Howard Government and 20% of these same voters think the WA Liberal Government deserves most of the credit.
Western Australian voters were more likely to think that the WA Liberal Government deserves the most credit for the agreement (33%).
Now a slightly different question. Following the loss of the Ashes in the recent cricket series against England, should Ricky Ponting continue as Australia’s captain or should he be replaced?
Coalition voters were slightly more likely to think that Ponting should continue as Australia’s captain (67%), while Labor voters were more likely to think he should be replaced (23%).
Respondents aged 55 years and over were more likely to think that Ponting should continue as captain of the Australian cricket side (71%).