This fortnight’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 46 (up 3) / 38 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – a 2 point increase to the ALP since last fortnight. This comes from a sample of 1156, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 2.9% mark. The Greens have dropped from 11 to 9, while “Others” have remained steady on 7.

Rudd’s satisfaction level continues to rise in a linear manner from it’s downturn in May –  at the expense of his dissatisfaction rating. The damage that Turnbull had done to Rudd’s personal political standing with the Coalition’s  debt and deficit attack has now effectively washed out of the system as far as public satisfaction with the Prime Minister is concerned.

Turnbull continues his bounce back from the precipice of political oblivion with his satisfaction and dissatisfaction ratings again moving in the right direction, but as you can see from the netsats chart below, his bounce back has only brought him up to the levels that Nelson was experiencing when he was given the boot. In fact, this whole poll is pretty much identical to Nelson’s last, which we can see when we compare the metrics from today’s Newspoll with Nelson’s final one from the 7th September 2008.


On the beauty contest that is Preferred Prime Minister, Turnbull’s PPM rating has, for the first time, ducked below Undecideds.

We’ll go through this cycle’s Pollytrend result a little later, and also compare the ETS Newspoll question with some Essential Report responses from earlier.

The usual charts come in like this:

pmsatjul28 opsatjul28

netsatsjul28 ppmjul28


Continue on to the Newspoll and the CPRS Questions.