Today’s Newspoll via The Oz comes in with the primaries running 43 (down 1) / 39 (up 2) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 55/45 – a 1 point gain to the Coalition since last fortnight. This comes from a sample of 1150 1132, giving us an MoE that maxes out around the 3% mark.
On the satisfaction dynamics which hit Turbull so hard last poll, we can see a small but significant bounce back – suggesting there was a bit of overshoot in the public over the Ozcar fiasco. Net satisfaction has moved back from last poll’s 40 point drop of -33, to come in at -24. This was a result of both Turnbull’s satisfaction getting a 6 point gain to 31 and a 3 point inching back on the dissatisfaction rating to come in at 55.
Also interesting is the last 6 weeks of incremental satisfaction gain that Rudd is experiencing. Considering Turnbull’s huge personal plunge had little effect on the actual voting intention metrics, I wonder if the whole exercise did little more than rust some vote on to Labor? Today’s Newspoll changed the Phone Poll average by a few tenths of a percent (one of the metrics we run against the electoral pendulum in the sidebar) – but made no difference to the number of seats that would change were an election held today.
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Later on we’ll go over the history of Liberal Party leadership questions, incorporating today’s Newspoll question on that – but in the meantime, the usual charts come in like this.