In the first poll of the final polling cycle where the Coalition can blame their poor political state on Peter Costello, Essential Report has the primaries running 48 (up 1) / 38 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 57/43 the same way – a one point gain to Labor from last week’s Essential Report. This comes out of a rolling two week sample of 2098 for an MoE around the 2.1% mark. Essential has behaved the way we thought it might considering the probabilities attached to the last Morgan Phone poll –  where Labor appeared to get a bounce from the good economic news of the last few weeks. One down,  Newspoll to go.

According to Christian Kerr of The Oz, we over-egg the polling analysis here by using things like pesky numbers instead of lint plucked from hours of intense navel gazing. As both a public service to Christian, and (as a suggestion from some Twitter folk) acknowledging The Oz’s call to mediocrity in political debate – this is all you need to know about the poll.

fortheoz

It would also help the cause of The Oz if they could get the basics right when in lecture mode – like spelling someone’s name properly.

Just sayin’.

For those of us that can walk and chew gum at the same time and couldn’t really give a toss about such nonsense, Essential also ran additional questions this week on a whole bunch of interesting stuff using a sample of 1292 for MoE’s that max out around the 2.7% mark – although you can work them out yourself in higher detail for the various responses using The Poll Cruncher if you’re that way inclined. The interesting bit on the economic questions are the way the responses are changing over time, so I’ve whacked in some charts to highlight the movements as well as the tables. Note how the economic expectations have now crossed into net positive territory, reinforcing the results that the latest consumer confidence measures have been picking up.

How do you think the Rudd Government is addressing the global financial crisis?

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gfctable

gfcchartOn the cross-tabs, Essential says:

People’s perception of how the Rudd Government is addressing the global financial crisis followed party lines – 95% of Labor voters think the Rudd Government is handling the global financial crisis very/quite well and 66% of Coalition voters thinking the Rudd Government is addressing the crisis quite/very poorly. 72% of Green voters think the Rudd Government is addressing the global financial crisis very/quite well.

Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

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ecocondtable

ecocondchart

The cross-tabs were brief on this one, saying ” Labor voters were more likely to think that over the next 12 months, economic conditions in Australia will get a lot/a little better (62%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think that they will get a lot/a little worse (56%).

Have the recent changes to the Rudd Government’s Ministry, including the resignation of the Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon and his replacement with Senator John Faulkner increased or reduced your confidence in the Government or has it made no difference?

govconfThe cross-tabs have us:

72% of Labor voters, 64% of Green voters and 62% of Coalition voters indicated that the recent changes to the Rudd Government’s Ministry has made no difference to the level of confidence they have in the Government.

However, Labor voters were more likely to think that the recent changes to the Rudd Government’s Ministry, including the resignation of the Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon and his replacement with Senator John Faulkner has increased their confidence in the Government (20%), while Coalition voters were more likely to think that the change in Rudd Government Ministry has reduced their confidence in the Rudd Government (32%).

Do you think the Greens should support the Government’s Emissions Trading Scheme legislation in the Senate or should the Greens oppose the legislation unless the Government adopts stronger targets?

greenscprs

On the cross-tabs, Essential says:

Labor voters were more likely to think that the Greens should support the Government’s ETS legislation in the Senate (55%), while 41% of Coalition voters and 57% of Green voters think that the Greens should oppose the legislation unless the Government adopts stronger targets.

Males were more likely than females to think that the Greens should oppose the ETS legislation in the Senate unless the Government adopts stronger targets (42% v 29%).

Would you support or oppose unions campaigning for more reforms to industrial relations laws?

unioncampThe cross tabs have us:

50% of Labor voters and 55% of Green voters support unions campaigning for more reforms to industrial relations laws, while 60% of Coalition voters oppose unions campaigning for more reforms to industrial relations laws. Only 14% of Labor voters opposed unions campaigning for further reforms.

Respondents earning $1000 – $1600 per week showed stronger support for union campaigning (40% support, 26% oppose) than workers earning over $1,600 per week (33% support, 34% oppose).

Do you think the Rudd Labor Government has given enough support to working people, not enough support or too much support?

workingfolkOn the cross-tabs, Essential says:

60% of Labor voters think the Rudd Government has given enough support to working people and 28% think working people have not been given enough support. 51% of Coalition voters think the Rudd Labor Government has not given working people enough support and 14% think the Rudd Government has given too much support to working people.

Respondents earning $1600 + per week were more likely than those in other income groups to think the Rudd Labor Government has given enough support to working people (47%).

Respondents aged 25 – 34 were more likely to think that the Rudd Labor Government has given working people enough support (48%), while respondents aged 45 – 54 were more likely to think the Rudd Labor Government has not given working people enough support (44%).

UPDATE: The bicyle riding, latte sipping, skivvie wearing soft-left collective hive-mind of  Larvatus Prodeo has a say on Kerr as well 😀

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Peter Fray
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