Sometime back yonder (April or May one would think), the latest South Australian and WA Newspoll State politics quarterly estimates were released onto the Newspoll public database, but from my poor memory they weren’t actually reported (insert wild conspiracy theory here). This morning the South Australian individual file turned up at Newspoll as well.
So, starting with South Oz, the period covers January to March using a sample of 876 for an MoE around the 3.3% mark. The primaries came in 42 (up 3) /34 (down 1) to Labor, washing out into a two party preferred of 56/44 the same way – a 2 point increase to Labor from the 4th quarter of 2008. The Greens came in with 10 (down 3) while the broad Others got 14 (up 1). The usual charts look a little like this:
The political fortunes of Rann have turned around over the last 6 months, where his net satisfaction rating has increased from it’s inverted level (where more people were dissatisfied with his performance than satisfied) experienced mid way through last year to be now back up into positive territory and above that of Liberal leader Hamilton-Smith. The Opposition leader hasn’t fared so well, dropping 12 points over the first 3 months of the year in what looks like a continuation of a nasty trend for him that’s been running over the course of the last 18 months or so. With the recent Scientology shenanigans and a good bout of silly buggers by the Liberals over the last month or so – it’s probably likely that these figures from earlier in the year are slightly optimistic compared to where the South Australian Opposition finds themselves today.
Moving right along to WA, the first poll of after the election has the new Coalition-that’s-not-really-a-Coalition government leading on primaries 47/33 with the breakdown having the Libs on 42 and the Nats on 5. The two party preferred flows through to a healthy 55/45 lead to the LibNats. The Greens came in with a healthy 13 while the Others were sitting on 7. This too was taken over the January – March period, but we don’t have a sample size for the poll yet, but one would imagine it to be around the 850 mark for an MoE in the vicinity of 3.5% give or take.
Not a lot of charts can be produced since this is the first poll after an election, and a line chart without lines would seem to be a bit superfluous. The long term vote estimates however look like this:
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Premier Colin Barnett leads on the question of Better Premier 60/14 over Opposition leader Eric Ripper with 26% being uncommitted. Barnett’s satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings are 56/23 for a net satisfaction level of 33 and 21% being uncommitted. Ripper’s dynamics on the other hand are running 35/34 for a net satisfaction of 1 and 31% being uncommitted.