Get that trigger ready. I know the psephologists have a lot of wonderful arguments as to why Labor should not contemplate a double dissolution election, but there is one very good reason to ignore that advice and have a trigger ready that will allow one to be called: There is absolutely no point in being the government if you are not allowed to govern and the Liberal and National Parties currently are talking themselves into the mood where they will try and thwart the Rudd Government at every turn. The Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey at the weekend said the Coalition was prepared to block parts of next month's budget. "If there is waste, mismanagement we will oppose it", is how he put it. Yet what is waste and mismanagement to the Coalition is the economic stimulus which Labor believes is necessary to soften the recessionary blow on the country.
Interest rate reduction a slight favourite. The Crikey Interest Rate Indicator gives a 60% probability of the Reserve Bank lowering rates at its meeting tomorrow. Opinion is divided between whether a 0.25% or a 0.5% cut is likely with both assessed as 27% chances with an even greater cut rates only a 6% chance. That the Bank will decide to leave rates where they are is put at a 40% chance.