Crikey’s NRL Hot Form Chart

We didn’t say it would. But we definitely said it could. And it turns out that it did.

The Warriors’ victory over the Storm was one of the great upsets in finals history and has blown the premiership race wide open. The Broncos were so shaken by the mere possibility of playing Melbourne this week, that it drove them to drink … copiously … during a finals campaign. The resultant police investigation and media scrutiny may well sure up Brisbane’s “them and us” resolve for one week at least. But Melbourne — previously the team to beat before you could even think about winning the premiership — has its own demons to slay.

The result may well be the game of the season — even if the issues on the peripheries of the match end up being by far the more dominant.

Them what tamed the Storm, the Warriors, have the chance to knock the Roosters out in straight sets at Auckland’s Mt Smart Stadium on Friday night. New Zealand should not expect another 20-odd penalties to be blown in the match but the home ground advantage will make up for that, even if the Roosters do boast an impressive record there. The problem is the Roosters’ recent record at all grounds, which isn’t great. And with the Warriors riding a big wave powered by form and emotion, don’t expect the Kiwis to fall off the perch after last week’s triumph.

Crikey Ranking Team Opponent this week Last five games
1 Cronulla L-W-W-W-W
2 Brisbane Melbourne (Suncorp) L-W-W-W-W
3 Manly L-W-W-W-W
4 Warriors Roosters (Mt Smart) W-L-W-W-W
5 Melbourne Brisbane (Suncorp) W-W-L-W-L
6 Roosters Warriors (Mt Smart) L-L-W-W-L

Crikey’s Hot Form Tips for finals round two:

  • Melbourne
  • Warriors

Crikey’s AFL Hot Form Chart

In football, as in life, realists and romantics often have competing desires. One will want (and expect) the best two teams of the year to fight it out in next week’s grand final; the other will hope that a surprise result — perhaps even two — delivers a favourite of the sentimental variety.

Do the romantics have any chance? Let’s turn to the Hot Form Chart to find out.

Geelong Team Bulldogs
W-W-W-W-W Last 5 games L-W-L-L-W
L-W-L-W-W Last 5 head to head W-L-W-L-L
W-L-W-W-W Last five at venue L-W-W-L-W
121.3 Av. pts for 112
74.4 Av. pts against 96.2
$1.11 Sportsbet odds $7.00

Realist or romantic? It would take Barbara Cartland in rare form indeed to even make a case for the Dogs. Geelong are as near unbeatable in professional sport as is possible. Any way you look it, the Cats have the edge and with their hunger seemingly undiminished by last year’s success, an upset is almost impossible to entertain. It would take the Bulldogs’ very best to trouble the reigning premiers for four quarters, and even then the Cats would have to be off their game to let this one slip.

And the winner is… Geelong by 39 points.

Hawthorn Team St Kilda
W-L-W-W-W Last 5 games W-W-W-L-W
L-L-W-L-L Last 5 head to head W-W-L-W-W
W-L-W-L-W Last five at venue W-W-L-L-W
111.3 Av. pts for 95.5
83.6 Av. pts against 88.1
$1.33 Sportsbet odds $3.35

Realist or romantic? The Hot Form Chart wrote off the Saints after their loss to Collingwood in round 19, so we are now precisely one win away from having not just egg, but an entire omelette on our face. And there’s just a hint that it may happen. St Kilda’s recent record over Hawthorn is excellent, and if the Saints’ back-half can break even then the Riewoldt-led forwards could very easily deliver victory. But the Hawks have been great all year and surely will be up and ready to rumble with a flag just two wins away. Phew! We got through all that without once mentioning Buddy … damn!

And the winner is… Hawthorn by 11 points.

Peter Fray

Get your first 12 weeks of Crikey for $12.

Without subscribers, Crikey can’t do what it does. Fortunately, our support base is growing.

Every day, Crikey aims to bring new and challenging insights into politics, business, national affairs, media and society. We lift up the rocks that other news media largely ignore. Without your support, more of those rocks – and the secrets beneath them — will remain lodged in the dirt.

Join today and get your first 12 weeks of Crikey for just $12.

 

Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey

JOIN NOW