Will Kathleen be a heart beat away? The Governor of Kansas, Kathleen Sebelius, has emerged as favourite on the Crikey Indicator for the Democratic Party choice as Barack Obama’s vice presidential candidate. Sebelius, the first daughter of a Governor (John Gilligan, Ohio, 1971-1975) in U.S. history to be elected to that same position, is in her second term after becoming the 44th Governor of the State of Kansas in 2003. Second favourite for the Democrat vice presidential nomination is Hillary Clinton. 

In the contest for the second place on the Republican ticket, Mitt Romney is now the clear favourite. Romney’s decision this week to formally declare he will not seek donations to repay $45 million in personal loans he made to his failed presidential bid is seen as having cleared the way for John McCain to choose him.


Candidate Probability
Kathleen Sebelius 13.7%
Hillary Clinton 12.4%
Joe Biden 9.4%
Tim Kaine 8.9%
Evan Bayh 8.5%
Bill Richardson 6.4%
Wesley Clark 6.4%
Chuck Hagel 4.8%
Al Gore 4.5%
Sam Nunn 4.5%
John Edwards 4.2%
Brian Schweitzer 2.7%
Mark Warner 2.0%
Christopher Dodd 1.9%
Jim Webb 1.7%
Ted Strickland 1.5%
Tom Vilsack 1.2%
Tom Daschle 1.0%
Any other 4.1%
Candidate Probability
Mitt Romney 20.8%
Tim Pawlenty 9.9%
Mike Huckabee 8.7%
Carly Fiorina 7.9%
Charlie Crist 6.2%
Rob Portman 5.4%
Eric Cantor 4.8%
John Thune 4.7%
Rudy Giuliani 4.6%
Tom Ridge 3.2%
Olympia Snowe 2.4%
Susan Collins 1.7%
Kay Bailey Hutchison 1.6%
Condolezza Rice 1.5%
Meg Whitman 0.9%
Newt Gringich 0.2%
Any other 15.8%

The gap widens. As economic conditions in the United States get even more unstable, Barack Obama’s lead in the race for President is getting larger.

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Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
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