Keeping track of this United States election process is no easy task, especially when there are so many contests on the one day as with Super Tuesday. There are a myriad of different opinion polls for some states and few if any for some of the smaller ones.

Hence I have turned again to compiling a Crikey Election Indicator based on the prediction markets where people back their opinion of who will win with their own money.

I should point out that the markets have been quite volatile in the last couple of days with Barack Obama seeming to gain support in the Democratic Party races.

Democratic Party
Clinton Obama
Alabama 40.0% 60.0%
Alaska 30.4% 69.6%
Arizona 65.0% 35.0%
Arkansas 89.0% 11.0%
California 54.0% 46.0%
Colorado 33.3% 66.7%
Connecticut 41.2% 58.8%
Delaware 62.5% 37.5%
Georgia 4.0% 96.0%
Idaho 27.3% 72.7%
Illinois 1.4% 98.6%
Kansas 20.0% 80.0%
Massachusetts 82.5% 17.5%
Minnesota 55.0% 45.0%
Missouri 55.0% 45.0%
New Jersey 76.0% 24.0%
New Mexico 77.5% 22.5%
New York 91.5% 8.5%
North Dakota
Oklahoma 89.0% 11.0%
Tennessee 86.7% 13.3%
Utah 50.0% 50.0%
Republican Party
McCain Romney Huckabee
Alabama 74.5% 0.2% 25.3%
Alaska 50.0% 20.0% 30.0%
Arizona 93.2% 6.7% 0.1%
Arkansas 11.8% 0.1% 88.1%
California 66.0% 33.5% 0.5%
Colorado 19.0% 80.9% 0.1%
Connecticut 93.5% 6.4% 0.1%
Delaware
Georgia 76.2% 14.3% 9.5%
Illinois 92.9% 7.0% 0.1%
Massachusetts 6.9% 93.0% 0.1%
Minnesota 94.8% 5.1% 0.1%
Missouri 79.1% 11.1% 9.9%
Montana 24.6% 75.3% 0.1%
New Jersey 97.4% 2.1% 0.5%
New York 95.5% 4.0% 0.5%
North Dakota 45.0% 45.0% 10.0%
Oklahoma 85.0% 5.0% 10.0%
Tennessee 65.7% 19.2% 15.2%
Utah 2.5% 97.0% 0.5%

For any real election desperates out there, I will be updating the probabilities on my blog late tonight before voting starts.

Peter Fray

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