Only 22 sleeps now until the next election day! The United States primary season gets under way with what they call the Iowa Caucus in early January and then there will be a rash of primaries to keep all us political junkies going through until the first Tuesday in November.

And some interesting contests are in store as the Crikey US Election Indicators – based on the Irish based prediction market intrade.com – shows.

The contest for the Democrat nomination has narrowed somewhat into a two person race but the Republican contest is wide open.

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Rudolph Giuliani 39.8%
Fred Thompson 5.4%
Mitt Romney 18.8%
John McCain 8.2%
Ron Paul 4.9%
Newt Gingrich 0.3%
Mike Huckabee 19.9%
Condoleeza Rice 1.4%
All others combined 1.5%
DEMOCRAT PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE
Hillary Clinton 60.9%
Barack Obama 28.8%
Al Gore 2.2%
John Edwards 4.7%
Bill Richardson 0.3%
Joseph Biden 0.3%
All others combined 2.7%

When it comes to the eventual winner the Democrats are the early favourites

NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA
Democrat 59.8%
Republican 38.2%
Other 2.0%

Get Crikey for $1 a week.

Lockdowns are over and BBQs are back! At last, we get to talk to people in real life. But conversation topics outside COVID are so thin on the ground.

Join Crikey and we’ll give you something to talk about. Get your first 12 weeks for $12 to get stories, analysis and BBQ stoppers you won’t see anywhere else.

Peter Fray
Peter Fray
Editor-in-chief of Crikey
12 weeks for just $12.