Public humiliation is a sobering experience. In my poll predictions I picked the bleeding obvious in New South Wales and completely misread Queensland. Call me a parochial cockroach. But does anyone know what went on in Queensland?
Sunday morning ALP “insiders” hinted that they knew something (from secret internal polling) that the published polls didn’t pick up. Will we have to wait for memoirs to find out?
Was it a backlash against Noel Pearson’s angry response to Rudd’s seemingly dismissive comments? Queensland ALP insiders tell me this was not the case. There is a left field theory that it was the single-mum’s vote that saw Mal Brough lose his seat. It is opined that they didn’t like his welfare to work proposals.
Was it State-of Origin parochialism? Some Queenslanders tell me that “Brisbane is not Queensland” and Kevin being a Brisbane boy could not count automatically on Far North Queenslander’s support. So is it just that Queensland is different? Has the Deep North become the New Labor Frontier?
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Closer to home, North Sydney was never in doubt. But the Hockey supporters blitzed the electorate, just in case. But what can we say about Wentworth now that Malcolm Turnbull has nominated — first cab off the rank — for the leader’s position?
What did the ALP’s internal polling tell them about Wentworth? Did they do any? What can, perhaps, be inferred is the following scenario. Wentworth was always going to be Liberal. Green Liberal voters could salve their sentiment by voting for Turnbull because it had been “leaked” that he favoured signing Kyoto. You hate Howard? Then vote for Malcolm. If Howard goes – on election night or 18 months thereafter – Malcolm is a leadership contender. He’s rich, he’s pro-Kyoto so he is perfect for Wentworth.
The feral greens (eg. Kerry Nettle) have been sidelined. Kyoto is now the bi-partisan default position. Who needs to flirt with the ferals anymore? They won’t control the Senate. Their position has been sucked into the mainstream.
Now the question is what will a fiscal conservative who says “the buck stops with me” do post-Kyoto? Don’t count on any windmills being built in Wentworth.