We’ve got them all, Graham Richardson, Andrew Bolt, Kim Beazley, Christopher Pearson, The Bulletin, Karl Stefanovic, astrologer Milton Black and callers Wayne and Warren. Crikey presents – the nation’s pick to win on Saturday. Here’s what pundits have predicted on TV and radio:
And our talkback caller of the week goes to — caller Wayne:
2SM (Sydney), Mornings, 21/11/2007 11:51AM Compere: Karl Schubert
Caller Wayne says the latest boat load of ‘illegals’ to land in Australia obviously heard that Labor may win the election. Wayne says dole bludgers, ABC employees and the mentally ill vote Labor.
Mention: Julia Gillard, Federal Deputy Labor Leader
Duration: 1 mins 16 secs
ABC Ballarat (Ballarat), Mornings, 19/11/2007 08:52AM Compere: Steve Martin
Politics Segment; This morning discusses the long pre-election campaign and the polls that are predicting a Labor win. The electorate is growing tired from the length of the campaign. On the evidence so far Labor will win the election, with the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate.
Interviewee: Nic Economou, Political Lecturer
ABC 612 Brisbane (Brisbane), Mornings, 19/11/2007 08:55AM Compere: Madonna King
King is joined by Glenn Milne to discuss the chances for John Howard to win the election. Milne predicts Kevin Rudd will win but does not think it will be a landslide win. Milne says Howard, Turnbull and Pine will be in trouble for winning back their seats.
CNBC Asia (Sydney), Squawk Australia, 19/11/2007 09:38AM Compere: Jeffrey James
James interviews Adam Kilgour, political analyst, about the current Australian federal election. Kilgour predicts on election night, there will be different swings on different issues in different states with an eventual result of 4-6 seats either way. In WA, he says he believes the Fed Govt will not lose many seats.
ABC 702 Sydney (Sydney), Mornings, 19/11/2007 09:46AM Compere: Virginia Trioli
[cont] Segment: From the Bunker continues with Hawker Britton Managing Director Bruce Hawker and Gavin Anderson and Co. Executive Chairman Ian Smith. Trioli asks for their election predictions. Hawker won’t give his. Smith predicts the Coalition will win.
2SM (Sydney), Grant Goldman, 20/11/2007 07:39AM Compere: Grant Goldman
Topics for discussion – Election campaign. Goldman predicts a close win for Labor.
SEN (Melbourne), The Good Oil, 20/11/2007 12:30PM Compere: Mark Doran
James Merlino, Victorian Sports Minister, says the Victorian Govt is commonly known as Spring Street. He adds Vic Premier John Brumby and the Vic Treasurer are based at 1 Treasury Place. Mr Merlino predicts that the Fed election will be down to the wire and that Fed Labor will win by a very small margin.
ABC North & West SA (Port Pirie), Late Afternoons, 20/11/2007 04:47PM Compere: Andrew Male
Male talks to Christopher Pearson from The Australian about the election campaign. Pearson says evidence shows the Govt will win by five seats, or the Oppn will do likewise. He says it won’t be a landslide because there are not the pre conditions of a landslide. He says the polls a day out from the last election were almost all wrong footed by reality. Newspoll is the most reliable poll as a predictor, had it down to the wire 50/50 for each party on election eve.
Channel 10 (Perth), Ten News, 20/11/2007 05:06PM Compere: Tim Webster
Kim Beazley, Retiring Former Labor Leader has labelled John Howard, PM a ‘lame duck’, predicting WA’s vote will be critical in this Saturday’s election. However, Beazley is worried this poll could prove a re-run of 1998 where Labor won more than half the votes but lost the election.
Channel 9 (Sydney), Nightline, 20/11/2007 11:38PM Compere: Michael Usher
Usher speaks with Graham Richardson, former Labor Minister, about an article in The Bulletin magazine in which Richardson predicts who will win the election. Richardson says he thinks people have stopped listening to John Howard and he should have gotten out a long way back. Richardson says he thinks Kevin Rudd will win about 20 seats. Richardson says theoretically you have to win Bennelong. Richardson says Kim Beazley was not ‘cutting the mustard.’
6PR (Perth), Breakfast, 21/11/2007 07:36AM Compere: Tony McManus and Steve Mills
Andrew Bolt, Journalist, The Herald Sun says the federal election might be a little tighter than he has predicted. Bolt talks about some of the possible cliches to be used by Kevin Rudd, Fed Oppn Leader and John Howard, PM before and after the result. Mills says Channel Seven have claimed they will know the result before anyone else. Channel Nine have somebody from the Chaser involved with their coverage [cont].
Channel 9 (Melbourne), Today, 21/11/2007 08:09AM Compere: Lisa Wilkinson & Karl Stefanovic
Regular Segment: Hot Topics with Kerri-Anne Kennerley, Presenter, Nine Network and Russell Barwick, broadcaster, Triple M. They discuss the prediction made by Graham Richardson, Political Commentator about a Labor landslide victory in the upcoming election. Kennerley believes the election will be close. Stefanovic does not believe John Howard, Australian Prime Minister will lose his seat in Bennelong. Kennerley says Howard and his wife will be on her program this morning.
HEART FM (Hobart), Across Australia, 21/11/2007 09:03AM Compere: Charles Wooley
Wooley comments Labor look certain to win the Federal Election, as Graham Richardson has predicted. Wooley says at least annoying political ads will disappear and PM John Howard and Labor Leader Kevin Rudd will go their different ways in history. Bob Brown, Leader, Australian Greens Party calls for $5m per annum for research into the future of the Tas Devil. [cont]
Interviewee: Bob Brown, Leader, Australian Greens Party
2SM (Sydney), Mornings, 21/11/2007 09:53AM Compere: Karl Schubert
He suggests that the ALP could form a Coalition with the Greens. Schubert expects that the Howard Govt will return to power, and says that he does not ‘buy into’ the polls that predict a Labor win.
NewsTalk ZB (Auckland) (Auckland), Paul Holmes Breakfast, 22/11/2007 06:53AM Compere: Mike Hosking
Kevin Rudd and John Howard make their last set speeches before the elections. Steve Price predicts Rudd will win because of a mood for change.
Channel 9 (Melbourne), Today, 22/11/2007 08:09AM Compere: Lisa Wilkinson & Karl Stefanovic
Regular Segment: Hot Topics with Deb Thomas, Spokesperson, Australian Women’s Weekly and Robert Craddock, Spokesperson, Courier-Mail Craddock says Labor will win the election. Thomas believes senior Liberal members would be appalled with the behaviour.
ABC South East NSW (Bega), South East Mornings, 22/11/2007 09:17AM Compere: Tim Holt
Milton Black, Astrologer, ACT discusses the election result, what is written in the stars for Australia in its horoscope, when it starts with Australia becoming a federation, what is influencing things at the moment, and the unexpected election result coming from a full moon and the movement of Uranus, Mercury and Neptune. Black discusses Kevin Rudd’s horoscope on election day, comparing it with John Howard’s, and comparisons with past elections. Black says that Kevin Rudd’s horoscope on election day is not as good as John Howard’s.
ABC Western Queensland (Longreach), Breakfast, 21/11/2007 07:13AM Compere: Danny Kennedy
Daffy gives an overview of betting figures, saying it does not look good for Howard. Kennedy says in marginal seat betting fluctuations, with some being marginal that were not considered so previously, the numbers ‘are going to fall Labor’s way’. Daffy suggests Labor might win 80 seats.
ABC Coast FM – Gold Coast (Gold Coast), Mornings (Early), 21/11/2007 10:15AM Compere: Trevor Jackson
Professor Paul Williams, School of Politics, Griffith University, provides us with an overview as he sees Saturday. Williams sees that the polls are shored up by blogs, talk radio, letters to the editor and anecdotal evidence and sees a Coalition win as most unlikely. Voters made up their minds a long time ago, which is why there has been just no bounce to every carrot the Coalition has offered. Labor will be happy to finish even in Western Australia, they’ll win four seats in South Australian and get back the two lost by Latham in Tasmania. Victoria is still unpredictable, but the ALP should win four seats. The big swings will be in NSW and Queensland and that should bring in ten seats to Rudd. All demographics in all states warm to Rudd because he’s not Mark Latham.
2UE (Sydney), Mornings, 21/11/2007 11:28AM Compere: John Laws
Laws says Oakes is saying that Labor should get there, as the national mood for Labor has been good and the Coalition has made a number of mistakes, however it’s not 101 per cent certain. Laws notes Oakes says John Howard is wrong when he accuses Kevin Rudd of thinking he already has a victory in his pocket, as Rudd is one of those in the ALP kept awake by the nightmare that Labor could come up just short of a victory. Laws says Oakes talks about Howard’s own nightmare – a finish to his career that would have ended in glory if he hadn’t stayed too long. Laws says John Hewson is a former leader of the federal Liberal Party, noting he cares little about Hewson as a commentator and doesn’t have the vaguest idea why The Bulletin would ask for Hewson’s comment.
2GB (Sydney), Mornings, 21/11/2007 12:36PM Compere: Ray Hadley
Caller Warren gives election tips. He expects that Kevin Rudd, Federal Oppn Leader, will lose by only a couple of seats. He expects that John Howard, Prime Minister, will keep Bennelong, the ALP will win Dobell, Eden-Monaro, and Lindsay. Hughes, Macarthur, Hockey, Patterson, Robertson and Wentworth will go to the Liberals. Warren continues to pick specific election results, many of which are ‘each way bets’. Hadley says that if Warren’s predictions are good, they will talk to him on Monday. Hadley says he would bet on the Coalition.
4BC (Brisbane), Afternoons , 21/11/2007 01:24PM Compere: Greg Cary
Caller Nick says he cannot pick Cary’s political bias. Nick says he is a big fan of Prime Minister John Howard’s and he hopes he will get back in. Nick says he does not sense a mood for change, although he does think some are thinking of it. Nick says he is concerned that if Labor gets in there will be wall to wall Labor Governments across the country. Cary says Labor Leader Kevin Rudd has suggested he should be able to make the federation work. Nick suggests Federal Treasurer Peter Costello would not have been able to win this election, and says he is betting on Howard with Centrebet.
ABC NewsRadio (Canberra), Mornings, 21/11/2007 02:20PM Compere: Sandi Aloisi
Reporter Sandra Lane speaks to voters in marginal NSW seats ahead of the federal election. Karen Bloomfield, working mother says every time she hears PM John Howard speak at the moment, she wants to ‘smack him in the face’. In the seat of Lindsay, Nema Nicholas, hairdresser has not changed his mind about voting for the Greens. Labor may be in with a shot in Page. Roy Jenkins, newsagent says the general feeling is that Labor will win the election. Martin O’Shaughnessy, Newspoll says Labor needs 16 seats to govern in their own right.
ABC 666 Canberra (Canberra), Afternoon, 21/11/2007 03:11PM Compere: David Kilby
Peter Robinson’s Letter From Ainslie segment. Robinson speaks about his Yuri Geller-like abilities. He uses his powers to foretell the federal election and predicts the coalition will win with an increased majority, that John Howard will lose his seat along with Malcolm Turnbull. He says the Nationals will be a new force in the coalition and that Mark Vaile will be the prime minister.
4BC (Brisbane), Drive, 21/11/2007 04:21PM Compere: Rod Tiley
Comperes and Callers discuss this weekend’s Fed election; – Caller Alan says Labor will win the election by eight seats. – Caller Ivy says ALP will win by five seats – Caller Harry says the Coalition will win by nine seats, Harry says Fed Oppn Leader Kevin Rudd will lost the election because he is “The Great Pretender”. – Caller David says the Coalition will win the election by 11 seats.
ABC North Coast NSW (Lismore), Breakfast, 22/11/2007 07:20AM Compere: Justine Frazier
Mungo MacCallum, political commentator, has written a book on the current Federal election. It will be released next month. He looks back on the election campaign and how it has been run by the parties. MacCallum thinks the ALP will win the election but he expects John Howard to retain his seat. He also tells what he thinks will happen in local North Coast seats.