Fran Kelly should read Crikey more thoroughly than she does. I say that because I heard her on ABC Radio National this morning say that “No one is predicting a landslide”. Then followed Ray Martin predicting a landslide. To which I say: “Join the queue, Ray”.
If they had read Crikey thoroughly they would have noticed that Peter Brent (90 seats predicted for Labor) and Malcolm Mackerras (89 seats predicted for Labor) have both been predicting landslides to Labor ever since the election was called.
In my case they need only have read The Australian to notice the consistency of my predictions that there would be a landslide to Labor – including the Sydney seat of Bennelong always mentioned among the twenty-plus Labor gains.
In the case of Peter Brent they would also be advised to consult daily his Mumble website to get the best feel for this election. While I am talking about bloggers I should mention that there are three psephological bloggers who merit regular consultation. They are Peter Brent, William Bowe and Adam Carr.
If Fran Kelly had consulted Adam Carr as regularly as she should she would have noticed my landslide prediction recorded there also. However, I have decided to revise one aspect of my recent predictions. Having consulted and considered the recent South Australian polls recorded in this morning’s Crikey I have come to the conclusion that Labor will gain only three South Australian seats, not six as I predicted in my last contribution.
However, I stand by my other prediction. The Independent candidate Noel Brunning will win the Western Australian seat of Forrest where the sitting member, Geoff Prosser, Liberal, is retiring. That means the 42nd House of Representatives will have three Independents – in the seats of Forrest, Kennedy and New England.
Finally, I have been accused of self-congratulation by a correspondent in Crikey, Chris Flynn. He misses the point. When I am wrong I am comprehensively bagged by the Gerard Hendersons of this world. The flipside for that is that I can claim bragging rights when my predictions turn out to be correct.
I am hopeful that Henderson will ignore my existence if he comes to review pundit predictions. I am also happy to note that, in December 2006, Henderson, in a conversation with Fran Kelly on Radio National, mentioned that I had called the election for Labor. And, let me repeat, that was back in December 2006.