It is the greatest puzzle of this campaign: why are voters planning to change the government when the economy is so good?

We’ve dug into the Morgan data to identify two different sets of voters – those who say they are optimistic about the future and those who believe there’s too much change going on.

The list of optimistic seats is incredibly mixed across cities, suburbs, regions and political parties. Contrast that with the pessimists, the people who believe there is too much change going on. The top three seats there are all good Labor electorates in the Sydney suburbs, followed by three Labor seats in Melbourne. Regional seats rank strongly, too.

More details are available from Electorate Profiles on the Roy Morgan Online Store.

Percentage of electors who agree with the proposition “I’m optimistic about the future”.

Electorate

% of electors

2PP
Pre-Rudd

2PP
Post-Rudd

Moore (WA)

85.33%

LNP 57.5%,
ALP 42.5%

LNP 50.5%,
ALP 49.5%

Chisholm (Vic)

84.67%

LNP 43%,
ALP 57%

LNP 48%,
ALP 52%

Canning (WA)

83.65%

LNP 55.5%,
ALP 44.5%

LNP 51.5%,
ALP 48.5%

North Sydney (NSW)

82.97%

LNP 58%,
ALP 42%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

Corangamite (Vic)

82.61%

LNP 49%,
ALP 51%

LNP 33%,
ALP 67%

Cowan (WA)

82.49%

LNP 49.5%,
ALP 50.5%

LNP 38%,
ALP 62%

Aston (Vic)

82.49%

LNP 66.5%,
ALP 34.5%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

Ryan (Qld)

81.87%

LNP 53.5%,
ALP 46.5%

LNP 44.5%,
ALP 55.5%

McEwen (Vic)

81.82%

LNP 48.5%,
ALP 51.5%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

Brisbane (Qld)

81.71%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

LNP 36.5%,
ALP 63.5%

Higgins (Vic)

81.33%

LNP 50.5%,
ALP 49.5%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%

Longman (Qld)

81.26%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

LNP 36.5%,
ALP 63.5%

Griffith (Qld)

81.19%

LNP 44.5%,
ALP 55.5%

LNP 32.5%,
ALP 67.5%

Mackellar (NSW)

80.44%

LNP 57.5%,
ALP 42.5%

LNP 56.5%,
ALP 43.5%

Fisher (Qld)

80.37%

LNP 54%,
ALP 46%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

Canberra (ACT)

80.35%

LNP 39%,
ALP 61%

LNP 33.5%,
ALP 66.5%

Adelaide (SA)

80.29%

LNP 41%,
ALP 59%

LNP 43%,
ALP 57%

Tangney (WA)

80.21%

LNP 55%,
ALP 45%

LNP 52%,
ALP 48%

Fairfax (Qld)

80.18%

LNP 52.5%,
ALP 47.5%

LNP 47.5%,
ALP 52.5%

Menzies (Vic)

80.10%

LNP 58%,
ALP 42%

LNP 50.5%,
ALP 49.5%

Lowe (NSW)

79.97%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

LNP 46.5%,
ALP 53.5%

Ballarat (Vic)

79.84%

LNP 44.5%,
ALP 55.5%

LNP 47.5%,
ALP 52.5%

Bonner (Qld)

79.77%

LNP 50%,
ALP 50%

LNP 45.5%,
ALP 54.5%

Lalor (Vic)

79.53%

LNP 37%,
ALP 63%

LNP 36.5%,
ALP 63.5%

Kingston (SA)

79.35%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

LNP 38%,
ALP 62%

 

Percentage of electors who agree with the proposition “There’s too much change going on these days”.

Electorate

% of electors

2PP
Pre-Rudd

2PP
Post-Rudd

Fowler (NSW)

67.69%

LNP 29.5%,
ALP 70.5%

LNP 29.5%,
ALP 70.5%

Blaxland (NSW)

64.09%

LNP 41.5%,
ALP 58.5%

LNP 33%,
ALP 67%

Prospect (NSW)

63.01%

LNP 42.5%,
ALP 57.5%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%

Gorton (Vic)

62.92%

LNP 34%,
ALP 66%

LNP 33.5%,
ALP 66.5%

Calwell (Vic)

62.13%

LNP 36%,
ALP 64%

LNP 24.5%,
ALP 75.5%

Scullin (Vic)

61.19%

LNP 36%,
ALP 64%

LNP 35.5%,
ALP 64.5%

Calare (NSW)

57.69%

LNP 53.5%,
ALP 46.5%

LNP 45%,
ALP 55%

Capricornia (Qld)

57.24%

LNP 35%,
ALP 65%

LNP 28%,
ALP 72%

Barker (SA)

57.21%

LNP 57.5%,
ALP 42.5%

LNP 48.5%,
ALP 51.5%

Kalgoorlie (WA)

57.14%

LNP 47.5%,
ALP 52.5%

LNP 51%,
ALP 49%

Maranoa (Qld)

56.68%

LNP 55.5%,
ALP 44.5%

LNP 60%,
ALP 40%

Hasluck (WA)

56.62%

LNP 53%,
ALP 47%

LNP 37%,
ALP 63%

Forde (Qld)

56.48%

LNP 49%,
ALP 51%

LNP 40.5%,
ALP 59.5%

Watson (NSW)

56.10%

LNP 45%,
ALP 55%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

Wakefield (SA)

55.79%

LNP 32.5%,
ALP 67.5%

LNP 32%,
ALP 68%

McMillan (Vic)

54.82%

LNP 54.5%,
ALP 45.5%

LNP 47%,
ALP 53%

Werriwa (NSW)

54.74%

LNP 43.5%,
ALP 56.5%

LNP 34.5%,
ALP 65.5%

Chifley (NSW)

54.70%

LNP 34%,
ALP 66%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

Lalor (Vic)

54.52%

LNP 37%,
ALP 63%

LNP 36.5%,
ALP 63.5%

Paterson (NSW)

54.31%

LNP 49%,
ALP 51%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

Grey (SA)

53.77%

LNP 41%,
ALP 59%

LNP 45%,
ALP 55%

New England (NSW)

53.65%

LNP 47.5%,
ALP 52.5%

LNP 49.5%,
ALP 50.5%

Parkes (NSW)

53.40%

LNP 51%,
ALP 49%

LNP 40%,
ALP 60%

Lyons (Tas)

53.35%

LNP 44%,
ALP 56%

LNP 40.5%,
ALP 59.5%

Hunter (NSW)

53.09%

LNP 38.5%,
ALP 61.5%

LNP 35%,
ALP 65%

Pre Rudd polling covers January-Dec 2006; post Rudd January-June 2007.

Peter Fray

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