My ANU colleague and Crikey commentator Norman Abjorensen is forecasting a death blow for the Liberal Party. If, as seems increasingly likely, the Coalition loses on 24 November, the Liberals are in danger of self-destruction without the spoils of office to help enforce discipline.

The prospect of a new "small-l" liberal force has been foreshadowed for some time. The Coalition parties have handled their two previous in opposition poorly. The Liberals are a party built for government. A successful Liberal Party leader commands a high level of authority. Opposition leaders, almost by definition, have yet to prove their leadership credentials.