There’s nothing like a little insider trading to keep a market efficient and so it was last night in the election betting business. For many days now there has been very little fluctuation in the probabilities assigned to the Coalition and Labor about an election win.
Since the release of Newspoll a week ago the Coalition has been between 29 and 30 on the Crikey Election Indicator which is based on the prices at the Betfair betting exchange. And then last night around 8pm there was a dramatic fall, with the Coalition becoming a 25% chance.
This morning there has been a slight rally in the assessment of the Coalition chances but punters should be warned. There are no stewards or an ASIC guaranteeing equal access to information in this election betting game.