There’s an old punting saying. It’s not whether you win or lose. It’s all about picking the points spread.

My old mate Michael Sullivan at Sportingbet Australia is going to hate me for this, because he’s already holding millions of dollars on a Rudd victory. But here are a few ideas for Crikey readers who might want to visit www.sportingbetdecider.com.

The ALP is a hot favourite to win straight out at $1.32. That’s a reflection of the weight of money. Yet on the seat by seat betting, the ALP is only favourite to win in 14 Coalition-held seats.

Obviously the ALP needs more than 14 seats to be sworn in. So where are these seats and where is the value (sorry Sullo)?

The value is really in the swing states of Queensland, NSW and South Australia. If the swings aren’t on in those states, the government won’t change. What you are betting against is how big the wave of sentiment for change will be.

Currently the ALP is favourite in only the three most marginal Coalition held Queensland seats – Bonner, Moreton and Blair, yet there is general agreement they probably have to win at least 5 or 6 to win Government. The next most marginal in order are Herbert 6.1% (Labor pays $1.90); Longman 6.6% (ALP $2.90); Petrie 7.9% (ALP $2.20); Flynn 7.9% (ALP $2.20); Hinkler 8.8% (ALP $2.50); Bowman 8.9% (ALP $1.95); Dickson 9.1% (ALP $2.95); Dawson 10.2% (ALP $3.50); Leichhardt 10.3% (ALP $2.20).

Of those I would say best best value is the most marginal Herbert; Longman (Mal Brough’s seat but good value for the margin); Flynn (new seat – no incumbent member), Bowman (Lib member got caught up in the electoral rorting controversy) and Leichhardt (retiring member).

Currently the ALP is favourite in the three Coalition seats in SA held by less than 1%. The only two other seats the ALP has on the radar are Boothby 5.4% (ALP $3.00); Sturt 6.8% (ALP $2.35).

In Boothby Nicole Cornes is doing it tough and Labor hasn’t held the seat in decades but if the swing is on in SA, Boothby will get swept up. Chris Pyne’s seat of Sturt is also well in play.

The ALP is only favourite in four Coalition-held seats in NSW – Lindsay, Macquarie, Eden Monaro and Dobell. Even money in Robertson. The two other seats the ALP would love to win are Paterson 6.8% (ALP $2.50) and Page 5.5% (ALP $2.00). Page is good value as the sitting Nat member has retired and in Paterson, ALP candidate Jim Arnenan is a strong chance.

If you like a bet, don’t waste time as the Crikey team are probably already logged on pinching the odds. Happy punting.