With interest rates and widespread navel gazing about the political consequences taking up the media-space, today instead of picking the verbal lint from our bellybuttons over the issue, how about we go to some spiffy little charts that sum up perfectly the millions of words that will be written over the next month.
First up, let’s run the RBA cash rate against the PM dissatisfaction rating over the period 1999-2007, using Newspoll monthly averages for the latter:
Now how is that for a snazzy little leading indicator!
Next up we’ll run the cash rate against the Opposition primary vote over the same period using Newspoll monthly averages:
One word sums that up – Ouch.
Now for the relationship between the Opposition primary vote and the PM dissatisfaction rating using Newspoll monthly averages:
And that sums up the debate — three graphs are worth a million words.
The only question becomes whether interest rate increases lift the Opposition primary vote directly, whether it increases the Opposition primary vote via PM Dissatisfaction, or whether it works via both channels?
As far as the Coalition is concerned however, it’s probably a moot point.