Labor’s primary vote has reached its highest level since Kevin Rudd took over the leadership last year – 54%, a rise of 4.5 points – according to the latest poll from Roy Morgan Research . Support for Coalition has dropped 3.5 points to 36%. The two party preferred vote splits Labor’s way, 60.5% to 39.5%, a four point turnaround for both parties.
Among the minor parties, support for The Greens is 5.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%); Australian Democrats 0.5% (unchanged), and other parties and independents 2.5% (up 0.5%). Despite the swing to the ALP, fewer voters believe that Labor will win the election.
56.5% – down 6.5% – of voters think Labor will win, 30.5% – up 4.5% – believe the Government will be returned and 13% – up 2% – can’t say. A majority of voters – 52%, down 0.5% – believe Australia is heading in the right direction, 32% (unchanged) think Australia is heading in the wrong direction and 16% – up 0.5% – are undecided. 20% are soft Labor voters – voters who say they believe Australia is heading in the right direction but intend to vote Labor.
Pollster Gary Morgan says: “The two party preferred result of this Morgan Poll (60.5% cf. 39.5%) is almost a replication of the result in early September . In that time the Greens vote has dropped 3.5%, while the ALP vote has increased by 4.5%, which suggests some left-leaning electors have decided to give their vote to the ALP.”
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So… Is the Liberal leadership open again? Or do we have to wait for Tuesday?
This latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekend of September 22/23, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 972 electors
Meanwhile, Peter Brent from Mumble Elections writes:
Today’s poll-mix includes a record five published surveys taken over the fortnight ending last Sunday: a Newspoll, Nielsen, Galaxy and two Morgans. The weighted aggregate two party preferred vote is 56.5 to 43.5 in Labor’s favour.
Such a result would translate into Labor winning about two-thirds of House of Representatives seats.